The US election campaign is in full swing and in just a few months on 8th November the die will be cast. There are 4 candidates, but only 2 matter. These are the Republican and Democratic party who have shaped the destiny of America ever since the 1776 War of Independence.
The two candidates are Donald Trump from the GOP or Republican Party and Hillary Clinton from the Democratic party. Out of these two Donald Trump is the dark horse. When he stood for the nomination of the Republican party no one gave him a chance. many even commented that he was a Buffon who would soon fade away. It didn't happen as per the script because Donald outboxed all his opponents like Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, and Kasich and wrested the nomination.
The surprise is that Donald won despite making some statements that seemed out of character with the American ethos of liberalism and tolerance. He was castigated for his comments by many of the intellectuals , but he stuck to his guns and won. In short, the statements of Donald centered on the theme of making America Great. He repeatedly attacked the Obama administration as having let America down. he squarely blamed Obama and the Democratic party for the rise of the ISIS and Daesh.
Donald also mouthed words against the Muslim community as a group. He wanted to stop the coming of Muslims to the uSA and those who were in America needed to be racially profiled. He was able to strike a chord with the average American who felt that Islam was a threat to his way of life. Many Americans felt that Muslims had abused the freedom enshrined in the America constitution by following their own agenda and undermining the life in America by terror attacks.
At that time he said what to many American was a sacrilege. He praised Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. What did he say? He said that both these leaders were 'strong' leaders who were very bad guys, but they fought America's war on terror by hanging scores of Muslim fundamentalists. ISIS was not in existence then but there were Muslims who espoused the Wahabbi concept of Islam and all were hanged to death by both Gaddafi and Saddam. Thus Donald said that it was a mistake to overthrow and help execute both these leaders.
The fact is that both these leaders when in power had decimated Muslim extremists and believers in the Wahabbi concept. Yes, they executed people but they ensured that there was a semblance of order all round. Donald admired them for being strong leaders. This surprisingly struck a chord with the average American who faced a Muslim threat.
Donald went on to articulate about constructing a wall on the Mexico- USA border for keeping out the illegal immigrants. Ther are 11 million illegal immigrants in the USa who do a lot of menial jobs, but in the perception of the average American they are a drain on the economy and taking the jobs of the locals. So Donald stretches a tune with the lower economic class of the US voters who felt that the Hispanic immigrants were a threat. His concept of a wall cannot be taken seriously but as an election ploy, it has worked.
Now Donald has stated twice that Putin was a strong leader'. He has gone on to say that Putin was a better president than Obama. Putin also has mouthed his admiration for Trump as a leader though he has been muted on the latest comment of Donald.
The surprise is the many in America do feel that Obama is a failure on many grounds. He is held responsible for the rise of Daesh nd ISIS and failure to modernize Saudi Arabia. He has perceived a failure in controlling North Korea and China and has made overtures to Iran for which thIraniansas are not gratefull but have snubbed America repeatedly. Right from the time of the hostage crisis during the time of Carter, Iran is a foe of the USA and now it appears in the Russian orbit by allowing Russian bombers to operate from its airfield.
These statements of Trump seem to have been liked among the common voters and now we can see that Donald has emerged neck and neck with Clinton though at one time he was trailing by 8 percentage points. This is a tremendous achievement and in case Donald can keep up the momentum he could be home and dry. In short, it will be the greatest upset in American electoral history.
The election is two months away and one can't be sure what will happen, but Hillary does look stale and carrying the legacy of Obama. This could be a double edge sword and she stands to lose a lot of voters who are diehard against a colored man as president and have an a paranoid fear of Islam.
The last week has been a traumatic period for the world. There have been at least 5 terror attacks and in one of the most reprehensible incidents an old 85-year-old French priest was killed with a knife by a Jihadist who claimed allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. The French have declared an extension of the state of emergency but have not explicitly stated that the attack is motivated by Islamic fundamentalism. The same thing has happened in Germany. 4 attacks by extremist lone wolf Muslim migrants has led to revulsion and made the German people think. But Angela Merkel has not identified the source of these attacks as inspired by Muslim extremism. There is thus a marked reluctance to name Islam as a source of terror. The reasons for this are myriad, but lurking behind is the fear that any identification of Islam as a source of terror may create greater bloodshed.
Views of Tump
Donald Trump is the GOP nominee for the post of President. He is a different kettle of fish as can be made out by his statements. He differs from the Democratic party whose leader Obama and now Hillary hesitates to single out Islam as a motivating force for terror attacks. The approach of Obama can be seen from a small incident. When President Hollande visited the USA, he in a press conference used the word, Islamic terror. The White house in a press release omitted the word Islamic and only let the word Terror remain. Subsequently, after a hue and cry, the word Islamic was restored, but just about shows that the USA under Obama just failed to identify the source of terror.
The GOP nominee Donald Trump to the chagrin of many has clearly stated that Muslims are the source of terror, the world over. He has also praised Saddam Hussein in an address at Louisana, as a man who knew how to deal with Muslim extremists like Al Qaeda. Donald mentioned that Saddam did not read the rule book to the terrorists, but simply hanged them. He was an efficient killer of terrorists. Earlier Donald had said the world was a better place when Gaddafi and Saddam were around. I don't thnk he can be faulted for this as things in the Middle East were certainly better when the duo of Gadafi and Saddam were around.
Donald has also stated that he would take on Islamic fundamentalism head-on. He would debar Muslims from entering the USA till they proved their bonafide's. He would also take the battle to the sanctuaries of the extremists and destroy them. He would mete out the same treatment to the Muslim extremists or Jihadists as they meted out to their non-Muslim prisoners. These are strong statements and many in the USA are also against this rhetoric, but the common American seems to identify with Donald and that is the reason the man won primary after primary and the GOP nomination. The latest polls also show that he has taken a 5 point lead over his rival Hillary. Trump is a little brash, but being temperate is not his strength and the white voter see him as a man who will restore the pristine glory of the white race and ipso facto the USA.
The future
Nobody can forecast the future. Donald may maintain his lead and win or he may win the popular vote and still lose like Al Gore who won the popular vote but lost to Bush. This is because of the peculiar nature of the US election where the voting is by an electoral college where the states which a candidate wins gets the entire electoral votes of that state.
However Trump has raised cogent issues and like or dislike, what he has stated cannot be brushed under the carpet. Even if Hillary wins she will have to consider the effect of Trump's campaign. Many claim Trump is a man with little knowledge and some even have referred to him as a buffoon. This is a sad commentary on the American people and means that half the American people support a buffoon? Not likely and this propaganda must be shelved as unworthy of replying. But the fact that Trump is in the finals is itself a pointer and means he has a real chance of becoming president of the USA. All said and done, Donald is the first man in the west to identify the source of terror and that by itself is not a mean feat. I wonder if any in India , in particular, the Congress party can take a leaf out of this book.
Every passing day makes solution to the ever burning Kashmir problem look more difficult. Nearly seventy years after independence all the three affected parties, namely, India, Pakistan and Kashmiris are grappling for a solution. Since the mid 1980's the problem seems to have gone out of the orbit of possible solutions. Today it has become a complex problem whose solution also has to be necessarily complex.
Pakistan has got thoroughly overtaken by Kashmir issue. All its policies seem to be centered around it. This obsession is making it go to crazy lengths to support anti India forces both within and outside its own geographical boundaries. Loss of human lives no longer matters to it. The civilian government is dictated to by the army and terrorist groups. Hatred against India is fanned by keeping the Kashmir issue alive.
In India the Kashmir issue is seen in a different light. It is reiterated again and again that Kashmir is an unalienable part of the country. The holding of elections is heralded as a victory of democracy and proof of participation in Indian democracy by Kashmiris. The role of security forces is highlighted in combating terrorism originating from within and across the border. Indians consider that they are being fair to the Kashmiris.
The citizens of Jammu and Kashmir are the ones suffering and are facing it right from 1947 in a waxing and waning fashion. Those who have left the state are suffering and those who are in it are also suffering. It is an unfortunate situation for the citizens of J&K state to be in.
J&K is unlike any Indian State. All other Indian states are formed around a language, like Gujarat for Gujaratis and so on. But the J&K state has Urdu, Kashmiri, Dogri, Ladakhi, Gujari and Punjabi languages being spoken. In almost all states Hinduism is the dominant religion and others are considered minorities. In J&K Islam is the dominant religion and Hindus are not considered as minorities. No other state has 40% of its territory under occupation by a hostile foreign power. Also in no state are the separatists freely operating against the Indian nation nor are terrorists intruding as in J&K.
The hapless population of the state is divided into two camps of India and Pakistan. Pakistan has an attraction for many inhabitants of the Kashmir Valley. The other two areas of Jammu and Ladakh are with India. The Muslims constitute around 60% of the state's population and are predominantly concentrated in the Valley. It is they who are finding themselves in a state of agitation periodically. The agitators frequently raise slogans of 'Azadi" meaning independence but it is not very clear do they want an independent state or want freedom from India. Some are also advocating J&K to become "Switzerland' of Asia.
Islam in the Valley was the contribution of Sufi saints and the Kashmiri Muslim was a very tolerant human being living in harmony with his Hindu brothers. However since mid 1980's this tolerance has taken a beating and has seen the ethnic cleansing of Kashmiri Pandits from the Valley in 1991. The nearly 100% Muslim valley is in constant state of turmoil ever since.
There is no doubt that the hand of Pakistan is there in the strife Valley faces throughout the year. Regular infiltration of Pakistan based and trained terrorists keeps the Indian security forces constantly engaged resulting in elimination of the terrorists and causalities on the Indian side also. Local Kashmiri Muslims have suffered thousands of causalities and property damage in the more than two decades of terrorism. In many cases local terrorists have become heroes upon their deaths due to the actions of the security forces. This has led to further widening of the schism between Kashmiri Muslims and India.
It is clear by now that the valley based Kashmiri Muslims are a divided, confused and frightened and are being exploited by different forces within and outside the country. The separatists have succeeded in creating space for themselves among the local population. The political parties like NC and PDP attract a section of the population who look to obtaining political benefits and government largess. The two national parties Congress and BJP have relatively little support with BJP almost negligible. Both NC and PDP play clever politics - they run with the separatists and play with Delhi.
Kashmiris come out to vote so that there is a government to provide them with some basic form of governance. This is seen as a proof of them taking part in Indian democracy. Soon this noble thought is shattered by boycott and bandh calls given by the separatists for number of days, which are also responded to by Kashmiris. In both cases the Indian security forces are called upon to perform yeoman duties and end up sacrificing many young lives. And then there is the omnipresent Pakistan backed terrorists who with regularity intrude and engage with security forces who have no option but to eliminate them.
This drama of agitation and death has been going on for nearly twenty five years now. It has affected the psyche of the Kashmiri Pandits and Muslims. However the Pandits have adjusted to their fate in other parts of the country but the Muslims are still searching their stable equilibrium.
What is the solution? Or is there a solution?
Neither India is going to give up its claim on J&K nor is Pakistan going to back out of its claim on it. Nearly seventy years have gone by, three major conflicts have taken place and last was Kargil in 1999. Still no solution is in sight. Pakistan has perhaps realized that it can not win a full scale war with India and has thus resorted to terrorist backed low intensity warfare. India has responded by amassing a large number of security forces including the army to engage with the terrorists. This is resulting in regular skirmishes resulting in causalities and associated problems. The local Kashmiris are getting alienated and are being mentored and helped by the separatists who draw support from Pakistan.
What should India do to win the support of local Kashmiri Muslims is a million dollar question? Will they respond because now Islamic considerations have also entered in. The Delhi government is being seen as a pro Hindu party. Dialog is becoming increasingly difficult. Pakistan is continuing to make appropriate noises in international forums in its bid to internationalize the issue and force India to talks on Kashmir. India is caught in a catch 22 situation. It is doomed if it acts and it is still doomed if it does not act.
The stalemate will continue. Lives will keep getting lost. Bandhs will be called by separatists. Local politicians will keep playing dirty and clever politics. Pakistan will continue backing terrorists and make noises internationally. India will keep answering with more troops and financial packages.
Till then trapped and hapless valley based Kashmiri Muslims will keep responding to all calls not knowing when there fate will change for the better and the present hell will turn into heaven. Pandits will keep dreaming of returning to the Valley.
The dust has begun to settle and the stage show has commenced with the curtain going up. The battle lines are drawn and the candidates on the verge of bagging the nomination. The GOP is likely to nominate Donald Trump, never mind that old timers and the caucus don't want him. On the Democrat side, the road to the nomination looks clear for Hillary Clinton who has fended off a serious challenge from Bernie Sanders. The stage is set for a clash between these two challengers. The American political system has a two party system. Theoretically, anyone can stand for the presidency , but all this is an eye wash as outside these 2 mainstream parties, no one stands a chance. For all practical purposes, the clash is only between Donald and Hilary.
Like in India, the election to the presidency is a hot topic and pollsters have a field day informing the opinion of Americans like a barometer. The Gallup polls have opened and show that Hillary has a sizeable lead of 10-12 points over Donald. This result has been latched on by opponents of Trump as a sign that Donald will be defeated at the hustings. They point out that the GOP challenger has the lowest ratings by any candidate during the last 3 elections, lower than Mitt Romney and John McCain. Both these worthies lost the election to President Barack Obama. This is certainly a cause for worry, but not alarming as Donald has not yet pressed the accelerator and is only revving up the engine. Trump has himself stated that he has as yet not launched his campaign.
Donald Trump has to, however, fight hard as big business and wall street are solidly behind Clinton. In addition, she has the support of the blacks and the Hispanics. Donald has to rely only on the extremist whites to sail through. But the whites constitute 72% of the electorate and in case the rightwing whites gather in support for him, he may yet sail through. Another thing readers may well bear in mind that winning the popular vote does not mean winning the presidency. Bob Dole won the popular vote, yet lost to George Bush.
This is because of the peculiar method of choosing the president , which is through an electoral college. Each state has been allotted a certain number of votes as per its size and population. Any candidate who wins the popular vote will be awarded ALL the votes of that state, irrespective that he won by even one vote. Thus, in case a candidate wins some of the big states then his road to the presidency is that much easier. Donald Trump thus has his work cut out and he is likely to press forward his candidature in the midwest and southern states where the GOP has its stronghold. The crucial state of New York is also likely to go in the lap of Donald. Hence, Donald cannot be written off.
As in all elections and that includes India, pollsters are not always right and this projection of Donald trailing, cannot be taken as a gospel truth. Moreover, the public mind is fickle and takes another incident like the one in Florida at the Pulse Night Club to swing the mood of the electorate. Donald is fighting with one arm tied behind his back as his opponents led by Mitt Romney, Ted Cruz, and Kasich has not endorsed him. This shows that the GOP is a divided lot, yet Donald has charisma and that may yet carry the day.
Hillary looks like sailing along smoothly, but she has a congressional investigation on regarding her server and personal emails as well as the fact that she is identified with the years of appeasement of the Obama administration. One can remember her attempt to cover up the Benghazi killings along with Obama and Donald is sure to exploit this incident. His reference to Hillary as "crooked Hillary" shows that it will be a no holds barred campaign that may well decide whether the USA will continue to rule the roost as a world power. To my mind, Hillary looks an unlikely candidate as the supreme commander of the US forces and one wonders what the US serviceman feels about Hillary.
The American election is a 4-year affair. In addition by an amendment to the US Constitution, an incumbent is restricted to just 2 terms. This is wonderful as it acts as a check to unbridled power. This amendment was passed in the late forties after the demise of Roosevelt the US president who won for a record 4 terms.One wishes that such a proviso can be incorporated in the Indian Constitution as well. The American political world is pretty insular and non-inclusive. There are only 2 mainstream political parties and the choice is just between these two, namely the Republican and the Democratic party. Each of these parties has now finalized their nominees. They will be given the seal of approval at the forthcoming conventions of the respective parties. Barring a miracle the Republican contender is Donald Trump and the Democratic challenger will be Hillary Clinton. The final seal on these two candidates will be in the month of July this year.
The American political world is pretty insular and non-inclusive. There are only 2 mainstream political parties and the choice is just between these two, namely the Republican and the Democratic party. Each of these parties has now finalized their nominees. They will be given the seal of approval at the forthcoming conventions of the respective parties. Barring a miracle the Republican contender is Donald Trump and the Democratic challenger will be Hillary Clinton. The final seal on these two candidates will be in the month of July this year. There is no bar on any other candidate or anyone standing as an indelendent, but his or hers chances can be desscribed as zero as the American electorate prefers only these two parties.
Donald Trump is a billionaire and a man with strong views. Many in his own party, in particular, the old guard led by Mitt Romney are opposed to him. He looks to divide US society with acerbic comments about Muslims and Hispanics. Muslim extremists are wary of him as he has promised to take the sword into the heart of Islamic terrorism. Hillary is the most conventional politician. She had tried for the nomination in 2008 against Obama but was defeated. She is the wife of Bill Clinton who was president for 2 terms earlier and narrowly missed impeachment for impropriety in the Oval office for having sex with a girl on his staff, Monica Lewinsky. Unfortunately she has a Congressional indictment on using her private emails for official purposes hanging on her head.
The election is a touch and goes affair and though Hillary has a slight lead in the opinion polls, she is yet nowhere home and dry. But it will be, I presume a close election and Donald with his rhetoric is not a pushover. Donald is handicapped as the entire republican caucus is not with him. His rivals from Jeb Bush to Ted Cruz and Kasich have refused to endorse him.Partly this is due the fact that Donald is too dynamic a man and all know that in case he wins the GOP caucus will become a cipher.
What of the American people? I have feeling that the status quo represented by Hillary will be her draw back. I could sense this mood when I was in Chicago last week. Many associate her with indecision and cover-ups like the Benghazi episode that resulted in the killing of the US Ambassador. Donald has tremendous appeal to the white diehard racial supremacist. He won't get the votes of the blacks and Hispanics. It will in all probability be a close affair, but will have a tremendous bearing on the world in the years to come. Perhaps Hindus will be happy if Donald wins and that is the reason, the Hindu Sena held a prayer meeting for the victory of Donald Trump.
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