An important election has just taken place in Uttar Pradesh. This election was held for two seats to the Lok Sabha included a seat -Gorakhpur which was supposed to be a stronghold of the Bharatiya Janata Party.  In fact, the party has won the seat 7 consecutive times in a row and Gorakhpur was considered a bastion of the Bharatiya Janata Party. The chief minister himself has always treated Gorakhpur like his own backyard.

The results of these two by-elections have come as a surprise as the BJP has lost both the seats. Apart from the shouting, it appears the people have voted the BJP out of power in these two seats.   This has come as a shock to the BJP leadership which had been banking on a massive win in UP to form a government in the center.

The importance of Uttar Pradesh can we gauged from the fact that it sends 80 members of parliament from the state and last time the BJP had 72 of them. This even a loss of 25 or 30 seats in Uttar Pradesh would mean the BJP may not be able to form the government at the center.  As things stand the two parties,  the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj party have both joined hands together and the result has been a polarization of votes. This has led to the BJP losing both the seats.

The gang-up

If the two parties the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj party can join hands together during the 2019 election and by chance are able to win 50 or 60 seats the fat will be in the fire for the BJP. Another disconcerting idea is the fact that a similar alliance would be stitched up in MP and other states and one can safely say that the alarm bells are ringing for the BJP.

The defeat of the BJP does not mean that the Congress will come to power,  for the simple reason that the Congress party under Rahul Gandhi has performed very poorly in the elections and is a distant 3rd but what does stand to reason is that a grand alliance of opposition parties may well rout the BJP and that will not be a good thing for the country, because the only uniting force among the opposition is the anti-BJP rhetoric.

Apart from this anti-BJP rhetoric, they have no plan of development or any social change and have a one-point plan only to unseat the BJP from the seat of power.

In 2004

We can recollect that in 2004,  the BJP entered the elections confident of victory with the slogan" India shining ". Unfortunately, the people did not think India was shining and Vajpayee could not get a second term as the prime minister of India. It must be mentioned that Vajpayee during his term as the Prime Minister of India failed to fulfill his poll promises and reforms which he had been talking about all his life.  He did not move forward on the Uniform Civil Code, Article 370. and integration of Kashmir with India. The result was that he was defeated.

It was not a good thing because the man who came to power was worse than Vajpayee.  He was Manmohan Singh who let the country down by becoming Lakey of Sonia Gandhi and abdicated his responsibility as the leader of India. This was the period when India saw the maximum corruption. The situation looks somewhat similar.

Modi may bite the dust in the 2019 election and there is every chance that an opposition united on a one-point agent of removing Modi may come to power. But India will suffer because this disparate group will not be able to govern the country and there is a chance that India will once again go down into the pit of history.

It is a sad story but there is no doubt that Modi himself is responsible for the state of affairs. He had talked of development and he had talked of so many other things like one rank one pension, Uniform Civil Code, article 370, but he failed to keep his promises. The people remember and there is a chance that Modi may be a one-time Prime Minister.

Last word

History has a uncanny knack of repeating itself and I for one would not be surprised if Modi is defeated. It will be sad for the country because the alternative is worse but who will blame anybody other than Modi. He has to shoulder the blame because he has been wasting time on inconsequential items like Aadhar card linkages and could not stop the many banking scams that ran amuck like wild horses.

 I have had the privilege of visiting Pakistan many times, mostly it was in connection with my official work. I must admit that I was always treated with great respect and I had the occasion of befriending many officers of the Pakistan army. These were always friendly talks but it gave me an insight into the Pakistani mind.

  After discussion with my Pakistani friends, I was able to get an insight into what Pakistan thinks about India.We should not dismiss their thoughts and opinions as if they are of no consequence. It is vital to understand their psyche and the hurt they feel. Yes, some of it is true.I will briefly summarise the thoughts of the Pakistani vis a vis India.

 Firstly, many Pakistani say that in 1943 there was no talk of Pakistan.That talk for Pakistan came after Gandhi and Nehru in a devious manner stopped the installation of Mohammad Ali Jinnah as the Prime Minister of India( this is corroborated by Leonard Moseley in his book "The last days of the Raj") In addition, the failure to give constitutional guarantees to Muslim minority by both Gandhi and Nehru sowed the seeds of Pakistan.Today generally in Pakistani this is cited as an example of discrimination against Muslims.

Secondly, during the 1971 crisis, India actively intervened in Bangladesh to break up Pakistan into two parts( I am afraid this is true). They say the Mukti Bahni on its own could not kill even a chicken. Yet Indian Army officers and soldiers were operating deep inside East Bengal in the guise of Mukti Bahini. When you are crying hoarse that Pakistani supported terrorists are operating in the Kashmir is really meaningless.The fact remains that the country which first started operations inside the territory of Pakistan was India when it sent soldiers inside East Pakistan disguised as Mukti Bahini to attack the Pakistan army and their soldiers at every opportunity.

It was India as per many Pakistani which opened the Pandora's box of cross-border terrorism. Pakistan also feels that it is India which is killing innocent Kashmiri youth and labeling all the killed Kashmiri youth as terrorists coming from Pakistan.This is a total lie. Pakistani also feel Indians are not sincere and they are consumed by hatred of Pakistan and Muslims in particular.

Pakistani view Narendra Modi as a murderer, as a man who got hundreds of   Muslims killed during the 2003 riots in Gujarat. I have heard Bilal Bhutto talking on TV and saying that the perception of Pakistan about Modi is that he has blood on his hands. The feeling in Pakistan is that India and particular the RSS have not reconciled to the creation of Pakistan.

Pakistani point out that Sikh's and Hindus live in peace in Pakistan and are protected by constitutional rights. They point out that article 9 of the Pakistan constitution gives guarantees the religious minorities, right to life and property. As per them in India, no such constitutional guarantee exists for Muslims with the result that Hindu Muslim riots are frequent phenomena.

As things stand, I do not think there will be peace with Pakistan because Pakistani want to avenge the creation of East Pakistan. They say their country was broken by India and they will not rest till they pay back India in the same coin.

 The old saying that to get a feel of the enemy one must get into his shoes. This is important and it is clear that we DID create Bangladesh and broke Pak into two. How will they forget that?

The state of Tamilnadu was carved out of the erstwhile  Madras, Hyderabad State. This was done as per the recommendations of the states reorganization commission set up by Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. Tamil Nadu thus became a distinct part of the Indian Union, where the majority of the population spoke the Tamil language.

The state of Madras also had a thriving film Industry which almost rivaled Bollywood. The Tamil film industry had it all, stars and superstars who were immensely popular among the people of the state.However, unlike other states the psyche of the Tamilians is to associate more with the film stars and the films. One reason could be that the stars give an escape route to the common man to live a fantasy and have a dream world and have a dream world away from the harsh reality of life.

The result of this was that film stars became the dominant face of everyday life. It was thus not unreasonable for them to venture into the world of politics. The Tamil masses accepted the film stars as political leaders for the last 6 decades out of the 7 decades of Indian independence, film stars have ruled the roost in Tamilnadu and they are the dominant political force

The first star who made a big splash on the political arena was MG Ramachandran. He was a superstar in his own right and extremely popular. MGR, as he was popularly called, was a wonderful man and he has the distinction having any number of women consorts, one of these consorts was Jayalalitha, who later took over the leadership after his death. MGR came into the limelight when he broke away from the DMK chief Karunanidhi and formed his own party the All India Anna DMK. Both parties paid allegiance or maybe lip service to the founder of the Dravidian movement Annudarai. 

MGR

MGR upset the apple cart of Karunanidhi and defeated him in the elections. He followed up by becoming the chief minister of the state of Tamil Nadu. MGR was a great leader but he was getting on in years and though he had a kidney transplant he left for his heavenly abode after few years.

His consort was Jayalalitha, who was 30 years his junior and had been along with him as his intimate companion. She was also a film star having acted opposite him in a number of films. Just for the record she also starred with the Indian Superstar from Bollywood Dharmendra in the Hindi film "Izzat". She donned the mantle of the leader of the AIDMK and made a place for herself on her own in the hearts of the Tamil people.There have been there having been many allegations of corruption against her but this did not  stop the Tamil people from almost worshipping her like a goddess

 Earlier MGR was opposed by another superstar name Sivaji Ganesan. He was a formidable star and was often referred as the Dilip Kumar of the Tamul film world. He was a supporter of the Congress Party but compared to MGR who talked of Tamil Pride Sivaji Ganesan by virtue of being a supporter of the Congress Party failed to gel with the people of Tamilnadu or to cut much ice with them and in the ultimate analysis lost out to MGR

Jayalalitha had a good career as a chief minister of Tamilnadu.Though she did lose the election  to the DMK and Karunanidhi became the Chief Minister, her hold on the populace was complete and when she died many Tamil persons immolated themselves. Such was the emotional attachment to Jayalalitha.

Death of Jayalalitha

The death of Jayalalitha has opened the Pandora's box for new film stars to appear on the scene. As it stands Karunanidhi is now too old and confined to the wheelchair. His son Stalin does not have his Charisma and as such is unable to enthuse the masses. The All India Anna DMK which was a one-man show of Jayalalitha and after her death is now almost at headless.  Her close companion Sasikala tried to take over the leadership of the party but she was convicted in a corruption scandal and has been sentenced to jail for 5 years. There is a possibility that in case Jayalalitha had not expired she would also have been convicted by the Supreme Court and that would have barred her from contesting elections in the future.

The field for the leadership of the All India DMK is open Jayalalitha's nephew has claimed the leadership but there are two new entrants in the field for the leadership of the Tamil people. They are the superstar Rajinikanth and another important star Kamal Hassan. Both claim to be good friends in real life but are politically miles apart. Kamal Hassan claims to be more secular and has mouthed some statements against Hinduism and Hindus. What his game is and why he mouthed such statements is not clear, because Kamal Hassan is a Hindu

Rajinikanth is playing a shrewd game. He has met Prime Minister Modi and generally is considered closer to the BJP. That is the reason that on a recent visit to Harvard, Kamal Hassan in a statement to the press said that there was very little likelihood of he and Rajinikanth joining together and he also hoped it that  Rajnikant would get away from the saffron flag. Saffron, as you all know, is the color associated with Hinduism and the BJP.

Last word

The stage is set for a battle between these two superstars. Cho Ramaswamy the popular columnist and political Guru have brought out that a similar fight was between Sivaji Ganesan and MGR. He feels that just like Shivaji Ganeshan lost, so also Kamal Hassan will lose.  He has also said that India can only progress forward once Rajnikant is the Prime Minister of India and that I think is the ambition of Rajinikanth. He is a great person, a philanthropist and a man with a golden heart. It is not inconceivable that with the permutations combinations going around in the political scenario in India that Rajnikant could be catapulted to the topmost post of political power.That is however a long way off and first, we will have to wait and see what happens in the coming general elections to the state assembly

For some time Rahul Gandhi has been going hammer and tongs at Narendra Modi. In UP on the election trail he blamed Modi for robbing the poor. He also accused the PM of joining the one percent of rich to rob the nation and as an example gave the case of Vijay Mallya. Earlier after the surgical strike by the Indian army he accused Modi of playing with the blood of the soldiers.. in fact his exact words were ' khoon ki dalali'. This is a bit difficult to translate.

What RG has been stating looks like empty rhetoric. The one percent he talks off is not something recent. It has been there ever since the Nehru Gandhi family ascended the throne of power. In fact the roots of this one percent can directly be traced to this dynasty. Certainly it was not Modi who erected it. Modi belongs to one of the bottom victims of the oppressed. He came out of it with great and tireless effort. In truth  the Nehru Gandhi Clan is the one that belongs to this one percent class. Look at this: Forbes lists his mother Sonia as one of the richest women in the world. Did she bring her wealth from Italy? Did she inherit anything from there? What did she come to India with? Fact is back home her parents were not affluent at all and she came to India with nothing it is obvious the Gandhi Clan made money and they had no business as well. They made the money on the back of the poor, the laborers, the fishermen and it is sad RG sheds tears for them Crocodile tears? So who is the person doing ' khoon ki dalali'?

Modi it must be understood has no magic wand to wipe away the ills of 7 decades of elitist rule. He has however started in the right direction. One such action is demonetization. So when PC asks whether all the black money has been unearthed, he himself knows this is not possible. The question is what did he do for 60 years? But the right direction is taken by Modi and this has given jitters to the men who has stacked crores of unaccounted money in their houses or safe havens. What Manmohan states can be dismissed out of hand as he was a stooge of the Nehru family. He himself presided over the most corrupt government in Indian history. It's unworthy of him to talk this arrant nonsnse. A man allowing corruption to take place is an accessory and the IPC says it. So Manmohan better beware and not dance too much to the pipe music and drums  of the Nehru Gandhi family.

RG has a lot to answer. He not only must justfy how he came into the one percent category but how his family allowed the nation to degenerate. A nation which was developed became a laggard below China. He must answer how Mallya got his loans. He has to answer to history and also the entire Nehru Gandhi dynasty led by Jawahalal himself. Modi is like a breath of fresh air in a moribund society, so let's give him his due. Robert Frost wrote" I have miles to go before I sleep" and so has India under Modi.