The longevity of the Indian National Congress led governments at the Center, since independence, have given rise to a large number of persons who are vehemently opposed to it. Everything wrong in the country is attributed to it by these anti forces. Further momentum to these negative feelings are given by the various corruption scandals that have hit the Congress led government since last more than five years. Nothing seems to be going right for them.
A party with a 125 year history behind it, today finds itself at a nadir which is out of sync with its glorious past both before and after independence. When history of the last 100 years or more India is written there will be four or five distinct periods into which its contributions will be divided and discussed. Howsoever may its critics dismiss the party the fact remains that Congress had an almost daily role to play in India's destiny from 1888 on wards till date barring a few years in between.
The Origins (1885-1915):
As is well known the foundation of the Congress party was laid by a Scotsman named Octave Hume in December, 1885 in Pune, along with leaders like Dadabhai Naoroji, Surendranath Bannerjee and few others. They were mostly members of the Theosophical Society of India. The British had consolidated its rule in India after formally taking over the country from The East India Company after the 1857 First War of Independence. English language had been introduced and was being studied by the elite. Indians were demanding a say in the affairs of the State.
However in its initial phase the Congress was acting as a 'petitioners party'. The party would meet once a year and make a petition to the government on the issues of the day. There would not be any follow up action. It suited the British also, as a facade of some sort of limited opposition was to its advantage and controllable. The Congress was a group of educated and mostly upper caste Indians who believed in manners and etiquette. The British tolerated it as it was not a mass based organisation. However it was a nursery for future leaders and battles. The seeds of organised opposition to colonial rule were being impregnated in the minds of increasing Indians across the country.
Almost all its petitions were rejected by the British Government and in view of this constant opposition,there grew a demand within the party for launching an independence movement. By 1907 the party was divided into Garam Dal or hot headed group led by Bal Ganghadar Tilak and Naram Dal or moderates led by Gopal Krishna Gokhale. Tilak was able to galvanise the party into a mass based organisation fighting for the independence of the country. This phase continued till 1915.
Freedom Movement Struggle (1915-1947):
A galaxy of leaders like Tilak, Gokhale, Pal, Lala Lajpat Rai and M A Jinnah were instrumental from 1905 on wards in involving the masses in their taking up issues with the colonial government. However that extra spark or push was to be provided by Gandhi who returned to India in 1915, after having tried out some of his non violent methods against the racial government in South Africa. After following Gokhale's advice Gandhi traveled throughout the country and not only understood the life of the ordinary citizen, he also correctly identified fear of violence from the government as a reason that Indians were not fighting the British to gain freedom. Gandhi decided to remove this fear from the minds of Indians and in the process make them into men so that they could face the world with their head held high.
He led the freedom struggle from the front and attracted a galaxy of educated Indians from across the nation who not only supported his non violent struggle but actively participated in it. In the process themselves also developed into individual leader caliber. The Congress under Gandhi fought for India's independence and became a platform for all shades of opinion from the Left to the Right from the non violent to the violent from the poor to the rich. Its membership truly reflected India and Indians from all castes, religions and regions. This brought Indians of different hues together under the umbrella of Congress. It conducted its deliberations in a democratic manner which familiarized Indians with the functioning of democracy.
The quality of the leaders in Congress was of a high moral order. Leaders like Motilal Nehru, Jawaharlal Nehru, Sardar Patel, Maulana Abul Kalam Azad, Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan, C Rajgoplachari, Rajendra Prasad, Netaji, Sarojini Naidu, Acharya Kripalani, M A Jinnah(till he left it), and many others inspired confidence in Indians. The Quit India movement in 1942 and the earlier Dandi March or the Salt Satyahraha in 1930 were turning points in the freedom movement.
Under the inspiring leadership of Mahatma Gandhi India got its freedom on August 15, 1947 but not before it was partitioned and the worst form of communal violence in which lakhs died and got displaced and left a permanent scar on the new nation.
It was a crowning glory moment for the Congress. It had successfully led the freedom movement and had a broad range of leaders to lead the nascent nation on the road to development and find its rightful place in the committee of nations. All its top leaders were alive and ready to face the challenges of leading India out of poverty and centuries of slavery.
Post Independence (1947- 1984):
The Congress party was the single largest party present in almost all cities, towns and villages of India. It therefore was the natural heir to the political vacuum after the end of the colonial government. The choice of PM was between Nehru and Patel and Gandhiji opted for the former. The Congress won the first general elections in 1952 and thereafter in 1957 and 1962.
The decade after independence was a period of hope for laying the foundation for a strong and progressive India where poverty alleviation would be a major task of the government. The tall leader that Nehru was gave the right direction to almost all the areas of the economy and various social sectors. The biggest contribution of Congress and Nehru was the strengthening of democracy and democratic institutions in the country. Nehru led by his own example tolerating dissent and encouraging dialogue and discussions in the Parliament. He laid the foundations of education, industry, atomic energy, science & technology, foreign policy and so on. His international reputation and prestige also India being held in high esteem in spite of its low economic capabilities.
However his Kashmir policy was a disaster for which we are paying a price today also. He overlooked the few complaints of emerging corruption which today has become a demon threatening our progress. He followed socialistic policies which had to be given up in 1991-92. He overestimated the Chinese attitude towards India and 1962 took place.
But Congress remained united and supported him and his government with vigour. The party had many discussions for the paths to be followed in various sectors of the economy and other areas.
It was the period when Bhakra Dam was built to support irrigation in Punjab, when CSIR laboratories were established to support Science, when IIT's were set up to produce world class technocrats, when IIM's where established to produce efficient managers, when steel plants and other heavy industries were set up to boost infrastructure and other industries and so on.
The Congress was the dominant party and it was natural that it won three elections in a row. The death of Nehru in 1964 was a blow but not entirely unexpected. After Nehru who? was an often debated topic. The Congress smoothly chose the diminutive Lal Bahadur Shastri a Nehruite and an impeccably honest person as the PM.
Shastri's crowning glory was the leadership he provided to meet the escalating food shortages and during the Indo-Pak war of 1965. The defeat of Pakistan brought back to a large extent the glory lost to the Chinese in the earlier 1962 war. The same Shastri whom many ridiculed for his very short height and softness rose to cheer him and love him. However in 1966 he suffered a heart attack while negotiating with the Pakistanis in Tashkent at the behest of Russians.
It was again time to chose a new PM. The election of Indira Gandhi, Nehru's daughter was to be the beginning of new and different type of era in Indian politics and also in the affairs of the Congress party. She faced opposition from what was called the Syndicate group to her election and also to her policies. This group wanted Morarjee Desai to become the PM and thus became hostile to her. Soon things came to an head and Indira in a master stroke nationalised all the Indian banks and stopped the Privy purse being paid to a large number of ex kings in the country. This was done through an ordinance and was opposed by the Syndicate group.
The result was a split in the Congress party and Indira formed the Congress (I) and the other group was known as Congress(O). Almost all Congressmen joined Indira led Congress and it soon became the official Congress party. Indira led with a strong hand and came out with populist policies like garibi hatao and 21 point poverty alleviation programmes. These helped her to sweep the elections. Her crowning moment was the formation of Bangladesh with help of Indian army and the break up of Pakistan as a result of the Indo-Pak war of 1971. Even Vajpayee hailed her as a Durga incarnation. She also gave strong support to the Green Revolution in agriculture which has made India self sufficient in food grains.
However she also attracted considerable opposition to her iron rule and policies. Jai Prakash Narayan led the movement against her and it reached its zenith in 1975 when as a measure to curb it Indira imposed the emergency in the country, suspending citizens civil liberties. This was never expected nor experienced by Indians. June 25th 1975 was a black day in Indian democracy. Some leaders of the Congress carried out alleged excesses and the Congress and Indira became extremely unpopular with the masses.
She lifted the emergency in 1977 and announced elections. Congress was washed out and got only one seat in the whole of Noth India. Indira herself lost her seat. A coalition of many parties was formed known as the Janata Party and it formed the first non Congress government in Delhi only to collapse in a few months. In 1979 elections were held agiain and surprisingly Indira was voted back to power. Congress once again formed government at the Center.
A mellowed Indira was different person now. However the terrorist ridden Punjab saw the Operation Bluestar to flush out terrorist taking shelter in the Golden Temple in Amritsar in 1984. A large number of terrorist, pilgrims and army personnel were killed in the army led operations. This was to result in the assassination of Indira by her two Sikh bodyguards in October, 1984 to avenge the assault on the Golden Temple. What followed was tragic. Anti Sikh riots broke out in Delhi and parts of North India and elsewhere. It is alleged that nearly 3000 innocent Sikhs were killed. The alleged involvement of certain Congress leaders has spoiled the image of Congress till today.
The above events created a division in the attitude of many Indians towards Congress and added to the numbers which were already alienated because of the emergency imposition. The beginning of the accelerated fall of Congress can be traced to these two events.
Indira became the PM three times and left behind a party not so cohesive as Nehru had left it.
Post Indira Gandhi(1984-2004):
The elections thst were held after Indira's death gave Congress a thumping number of seats in the Lok Sabha which even Nehru had not been able to win. The more than 400 seats gave Congress a solid majority and Rajiv Gandhi, the son of Indira and a reluctant PM was at the helm of affairs. The Nehru-Gandhi dynasty had given its third PM to the country.
Rajiv was young and had a modern outlook He was charmingly handsome and was highly telegenic. He initiated modernization programs like computerization and expansion of affordable communications. But he also unwittingly or otherwise took a decision regarding the Ram Janamabhomi Temple in Ayodhaya which allowed it to be reopened after many years of being under lock. Till today the dispute continues and it was politically exploited by BJP to capture power post demolition of Babri Masjid.
The inexperienced but honest Rajiv got embroiled in the Bofors gun scam and his image took a beating. He attempted to resolve the Assam and Punjab problems, with some degree of success. He also sent troops to Sri Lanka to curb the Tamil militants. This was to be his undoing, as during the campaigning for the 1990 elections he was killed by the LTTE in a suicide bomb blast in Tamil Nadu.
By now the Congress had began to get the image of corrupt party, though in the following elections P V Narsimha Rao became the PM. He ushered in the economic reforms in the 1991-92 budget through Dr Man Mohan Singh. The liberalized economy was to unleash the Indian economy into a fast growth mode and changed the economics of the country in a great manner. India's international trade grew handsomely and it got globilised in the process. The purchasing power of Indian's also started improving and consumerism increased. Life style of people improved. The mood in the country was upbeat after a long time.
The Congress party was now being led by Sonia Gandhi another reluctant entrant into politics. But she had to bow to the requests of the Congress party workers as they wanted a Nehru- Gandhi family member at the helm of the affair. The family still had a strong brand value. In spite of far reaching economic reforms the 1996 elections did not bring back the Congress to power. It remained out of power till 2004 and was the principle opposition party in the Parliament during the BJP government headed by Atal Behari Vajpayee (1999-2004).
Manmohan Singh's Era (2004-2014):
The BJP got a shock when it lost the elections in 2004 after what was seen to be a successful coalition led ably by Atalji. Congress returned to form the government at the Center. Normally Sonia should have become the PM, but in a master stroke she recommended Manmohan Singh for the PM's post. One of the main reason she apparently did it was because she did not want her foreign origin to become a contentious issue. Singh was to prove to be an able PM heading the UPA I coalition. But for the Nuclear Bill the performance of the government was average although economy was showing better GDP growth rates.
The elections of 2009 were not expected to give Congress any better results than 2004. But that is what happened . Congress came back stronger and again led the coalition government as UPA II. This time however the going has not been good for the Congress. Apart from the GDP rates falling from a high of 8.5% to around 4.5 %, it is the number and quantum of scams that have made it go down in the eyes of a vast number of voters. It is also not able to face the well planned onslaught by BJP led single handed by Modi. Severe anti incumbency is going to make it very difficult to come back to power in 2014 elections.
Conclusions:
With 24 X 7 TV coverage, news channels have had a field day exposing the various scams and this has gone against the party's image. The party is finding it very difficult to explain the occurrence of the scams and the absence of strong action on their perpetrators. Congress leadership is unable to explain why corruption was allowed to take place, even when it was suspected to be taking place.
The dual arrangement of leadership at the top has resulted in the Congress President exercising authority without responsibility and the PM having responsibility without authority. In the process the PM is seen as a weak person who has not been able to prevent scams from taking place.
The rise of dynasty in the Congress is the maximum as it has been around the longest. Dynasty gives a very big advantage and unfair clout to the progeny of politicians in power. It gives them assured returns and thus they end up as armchair politicians dispensing favours to a very close circle of intimate persons/groups. In today's India where aspirations are running high and the number of self made persons is on the rise and people have to face tremendous competition to prove themselves, dynasty backing is considered both unfair and unjust.
The present lot of Congress leaders are mostly above age of retirement and some are in their 70's and 80's. They seem to be a tired lot and are not prepared to go to the extra length to improve the fortunes of the party. They would like their pampered sons and daughters to do so. But thay have not come up the hard way and lack grass root contacts.In a country of young persons below 35 years of age they are out of tune with them.
Having been in power for so long has created a sense of false security and a sense of "right' to rule in many a Congress leader. The economy has become sluggish with inflation and prices are hurtfully high. Growth is also jobless to a large extant and this does not make for a healthy economy.
Also these weaknesses especially corruption and dynasty factor is ceaselessly exploited by BJP and its PM candidate very successfully it seems. The Congress does not seem to have an answer to it. Also the rise of AAP party has introduced a totally new dimension in the way politics is sought to be conducted and the Congress is again on the receiving end.
It is very clear that by displacing Congress, political space will be created, for being occupied by competing parties. Thus Congress is under constant scrutiny and attack by its political rivals. So far it has not shown the flair to hit back. It seems the scams have corroded its structure and made it weak.
For a century old party with a glorious record of having brought out India into independence and thereafter guided it to an rising economic power ,it finds itself in a hopeless situation politically. Does it need a Nehru or Indira or Rao to revitalize it or Rahul is their only answer. The young voter of India, today, does not care for past glories but cares for near future opportunities with very low tolerance for corruption.
Does Congress have in it, to face the emerging new challenges and march for the next 100 years as it has in the last 100 years. Mid 2014 will tell.
Politics is a well known subject for each and every one of us. In all the nations of this world, politics has got more importance when compared to other fields. If a nation has to develop, it has to be well developed politically first. India got its independence on August 15, 1947. Already 67 years have been passed since India achieved its independence. We can see a remarkable difference between the political conditions 40 years back and the prevailing political conditions.
Since India is a democratic country, people themselves have the power to elect nation's representative by casting their votes. Elections can be compared to festivals to Indians. This is because all the nominated parties during the time of election keep themselves busy in campaigns. Radios, newspapers, television, internet and many more media are used for the campaign of election. Within the city or town they go for campaigning with the help of loud speakers. With the help of advertisements they show the demerits of voting other parties and merits of voting for their own parties. They promise to fulfill all the requirements of the people and attract them towards their parties. Since some percentage of the population of our country is illiterate, they fall prey to the false promises made by these politicians. Nominated members offer money, alcohol to the voters and influence them to cast their votes in favor of their parties. Voters too falling prey to greediness cast their votes to wrong parties. Since people cast their valuable votes to wrong parties, criminal minded corrupt members get elected.
A few years back Indian politicians played a good role and worked in favor of the public and development of the country. They worked with devotion. Serving people and there by serving their motherland was their main aim. They struggled hard for welfare of the country. But, politicians of now a days have no respect towards their country. Most of the politicians are looters, corrupt and criminals. In our constitution, their are certain laws for the people who want to participate in election. One of the rule is that one shouldn't have done any crime. These rules are just for name sake. This is because most of the politicians have been involved in corruption cases and yet they are allowed to participate in elections.
Today politics in India is of very low level. Voters before voting should test the capabilities and conduct of nominees well and then vote, so that wrong person does not get elected and come in power which can be very harmful to the citizens and mother country. Politicians should work efficiently and run country without corruption. The real work starts after the election. Just conducting elections with so much of campaigns and then not doing duties efficiently is all real waste of time and money.
Corruption in India is very common. It is a subject of day to day discussion. More commonly seen in government offices and can be compared to "tumor in the stomach of Indian economy." It can be compared to an evil, which shouldn't be tolerated. If one tolerates evil, it is same as allowing evil to spread quickly. Since we the citizens are tolerating this crime at a larger rate, we ourselves are allowing it to spread it in large hectares and grow by day and night. We develop tolerance among ourselves for these corrupt politicians and many other corrupt officials and thus this corruption never stops and grows day by day.
Politicians often promise to stop this corruption but often fails to do so. Like all other promises they make and never fulfill, their this promise of ceasing corruption also fails. And who can be more corrupt than these politicians themselves. They eat away all the money of our country during their power of rule, no matter whether they are members of ruling party or in opposition. The money meant for the development of our country is all spent on their leisure. Their bank balance reaches the sky and they keep buying the properties in India and foreign countries. They have become millionaires and multimillionaires. And even after knowing the truth, no action is taken against them.
Due to black market operations, there is shortage in the requirements of day to day needs and this has been causing a major problem in our country. This corruption instead of been removed or brought into control, we are spreading it at an alarming rate. Now a days it has become not only difficult, in fact impossible to get our work done without greasing palm of government staff. We never complain as we want our works to be done quickly. We in this rat race to get our works done at a rapid pace have lost completely in senses and are living our lives by paying bribes.
No body, neither we as citizens of this motherland nor the officers who demand and happily accepts bribes are ashamed of deeds. Leaders or the ministers of ruling party are first and foremost people responsible for this corruption. It's their responsibility to know whom among their administration is corrupt. Those subordinates should be taught a good lesson by taking action against them. But, that all depends on whether they are willing to take any action against them or not. If they are honest, they better know what to do. If they are dishonest, they will not take any action against their subordinates or colleagues because if they touch one, it's like touching all and therefore their agenda is to touch no one. They are greatly reluctant to punish corrupt officers, instead they often take the sides of corrupt men and speak for them. This is just because they are dishonest and are not people of integrity. They are ineffective and inefficient.
If the administration is corrupt doesn't mean we should bow down in front of them and allow corruption to happily breath in this country. We all must unite. First thing is to take an oath that we would never bribe somebody nor accept bribes from others. Next thing is to stick to our words. Complain against these corrupt officials. No matter whether any action is taken against them or left unheard. Raising voice repeatedly will threaten them.
Corruption is increasing rapidly in our country. We as the citizens of this country should take right measures to stop it. Government should behave rightly and take suitable actions and the guilty should be punished. If right measures taken, soon India will become a noble, corruption free country.
There was a time in India when socialistic policies were found very attractive. However today these policies are not looked upon favourably. The main reason is that it does not make sound economics. As is well known there is no free lunch in the world. Someone somewhere is footing the bill for every free lunch enjoyed by another someone somewhere. Over the years in India a class of politicians have been advocating strong implementation of policies which consists of giving essential goods and services to a large section of our population at heavily subsidised prices. In fact there is a subsidy competition among different parties. Every party tries to out do the other and appear as the messiah of the poor masses.
In itself such provision of subsidised goods and services to a deserving few is a laudatory gesture. There are persons who are unfortunately at the margins of poverty and deserve all sympathy and support by a caring society and government. Centuries of cast based oppression has emasculated a significant section of our lower economic strata. They need more time to come out of it and need to be guided and supported. Direction of subsidies to this class will not be resented by anyone nor will it affect the economy adversely.
However it is when subsidies are used as a tool to garner electoral support that it takes a different meaning altogether. It is then nothing short of a legal 'bribing' of the voters at state expense. The political class of all colours has by now mastered this art into a fine arrangement under the guise of helping the poor of this country. In the process good economics has been given a go by.
The Central government has planned for a subsidy if Rs 2,20,971 crores in the 2013-14 budget towards food, fertiliser and fuel items. This has resulted in the fiscal deficit touching a figure of 5.2%.
The food subsidy is Rs 90,000 crore, fuel subsidy Rs 65,000 crore and it is Rs 65,971 crore for fertilisers. The falling rupee increases the subsidy costs especially on fuel and fertilisers. Now the government has gone ahead and passed the food security Bill which will increase the subsidy burden further. The government is trying hard to contain the subsidies to under 2% of the GDP.
Why are subsidies given?
They are given so that the population may be protected from paying the actual costs. These concessions enable people to buy subsidised items at a lower than actual prices. The difference is paid by the government. These costs are considered as non-plan expenditure and they keep rising. One of the primary reason for giving subsidies is because of the relatively low purchasing power of the targeted section of population and the need to keep the prices artificially low.
They are also given in select cases to promote the use of new items like computers when they were first introduced in the 1980's or fertilisers when they were introduced in the early 1960's so that their use expands fast for the broader good of the society.
Why subsidies affect adversely?
Subsidies are an expenditure item. They are given out from revenues collected on the income side. Experience shows that subsidies keep rising due to rupee devaluation and rising demand of subsidised products. This extra burden has to be met by cutting expenditure somewhere or by increased borrowings incurring interest costs or the deficit has to be allowed to widen. All these negatively affect the economy and retard growth.
The large volume of subsidies is also one of the major contributory reasons for the prevailing high inflation in almost all sectors of the economy especially food items.
The misuse due to overuse of subsidised items is well known. The gradual reduction in diesel subsidy since nearly 10 months has resulted in its usage falling for the first time. Over consumption is common as is the case with supply of free electricity in many states to its farmers. They run pumps without fear of electricity bills and this has resulted in considerable lowering of underground water table in these states. There is a saying in Hindi " mile muft dil-e-beraham" meaning when items are freely available the heart is ruthless. Subsidies lead to over and skewed consumption.
Another associated problem is the fact that subsidies are enjoyed by the rich considerably even when they can afford to pay actual prices. Like in case of SUV's costing lakhs and running on heavily subsidised diesel. Also adulteration is another problem like mixing of subsidised kerosene with other costly solvents. Leakages from the distribution chain is a very profitable business as cheap products are sold at high prices in open markets.
Corruption is rampant among officials associated with distribution of subsidised products and issuing of relevant documents to eligible persons. It leads to humiliation of the target population.
Are subsidies a compensation for bad governance?
The increasing burden of subsidy over the years has resulted in the government finding an easy way to offset the demand for providing answers as to why after more than sixty five years after independence also there are large sections of population whose purchasing power is still very low. It means that uniform development has not taken place. Skewed development has resulted in neglect of the economically downtrodden and subsidy is a way out to keep them from revolting.
Real and actual prices are not allowed to prevail in many items supposedly to keep their prices low and this has created an artificial economy controlled by vested interests cutting through all classes. The artificial economy has to be maintained through higher subsidies, higher deficits, higher borrowings, higher interest burdens, higher taxes and duties and higher levels of corruption. The cumulative failure of governments since independence to create an economic system where there would be no need for subsidies is sought to be covered by providing subsidies and thus trying to control anger and outbursts. In itself it is a good gesture but it dilutes the desire to develop a self sustaining economy capable of taking care of all its citizens.
Politicians and especially the party in power are now increasingly using subsidies as a tool to attract specific sections to vote for them in the elections. That the electorate even of the lowest economic strata has become smart was proved by Tamils who took all the free TV's distributed by DMK government and coolly voted for Amma. But Amma has now started heavily subsidised idly dosa counters all over Tamilnadu at state expense. Recently the Congress government in Rajasthan started free treatment and medicines to all patients thinking voters will vote them back to power,who went and voted BJP to power in record numbers.
Does it mean that the poorest voter also does not want doles but wants good governance which will give him an equal opportunity to earn his wages?
Who is affected by subsidies?
The government is robbing Peter to pay Paul. In order to meet the subsidy expenditure of more than Rs 5 lakh crores per year the taxes and duties are kept high. Thus those who avail these products or services have to bear higher prices due to higher taxes etc so that subsidies are possible. Subsidies are also given for political gains and this is misuse of collected funds.
By having to resort to deficit financing to enable non-plan expenditure of subsidies, the government ends up in high borrowings, driving interest rates up and this fuels inflation which results in high overall prices. Who benefits? Thus heavy subsidies result in everyone getting affected instead of helping particular target groups. Subsidies raise all price levels to a higher level as they are not self sustaining but have to be fed from other sources.
The only persons not affected are the rich class, the involved middlemen and the patronising politicians in power. Rest all of us are losers.
Can subsidies be removed?
YES. They can be removed. The fear of their removal leading to troubles is far fetched. The removal of subsidies on petrol has not resulted in any chaos. The gradual reduction of diesel subsidies has not abnormally raised transportation costs. The subsidised municipal schools are going begging for students as even poor parents are willing to shell out high fees for good education to their children. If fertiliser subsidies are removed the food grain yields are not going to go down as farmers are using combination of techniques to grow crops which give higher yields which will help absorb increased cost of the only subsidised urea fertiliser. The removal of subsidies from LPG cylinders will raise their cost but will lead to discipline in its use.
If all subsidies are removed the government does not need to collect more than Rs 5 lakh crores annually. A honest govt will reduce taxes and duties to match this reduction in annual costs. This will put money back into the pockets of citizens. Not only tax payers but everyone will benefit from cheaper goods and services.
Why subsidies are not removed?
Because the politicians are living in the past. Subsidies were needed 30-40 years ago when the purchasing power of Indians was indeed low but today that is not the case. Also it gives the power to patronise and favour on a quid pro quid basis between the politician and the subsidy receiving groups. The governments today are caught in a trap. If they remove subsidies they can be voted out of power. Which politician will do this?
Leakages in subsidies due to corruption enriches a significant number of persons with influence and ability to provide funds and garner votes to politicians. The subsidised groups are now a powerful class with vested interest like farmer lobbies who will not allow their withdrawal. Other sections are also asking for subsidies.
The population is basically tolerant and does not revolt against such high subsidy burden as all groups are getting some subsidy. The fact that funds could be diverted to economic projects which would generate jobs etc is overlooked for a few rupees of subsidy.
It is going to be difficult and will require a very strong non compromising leader who is not on the horizon.
Is there a way out?
It requires political will and creation of awareness that continued subsidies are not in the interest of development. In fact they retard it. Some subsidies for very vulnerable sections of our society like tribals, poor dalits, and marginalised sections can be and should be there to help them economically so that they also lead a decent life in a growing economy. But flat subsidies to even persons who can pay is economically not sound economics.
In fact subsidies in a way are a manner of enticing the voters at state expense to vote for the party in power. Still more subsidy will have to be given next time.
Some subsidies on fuel can be done away immediately and others can be withdrawn in a fixed time frame of say two years. But is there a leader who has the guts to do it?
Presently the three musketeers in form of Modi, Rahul and Kejriwal are dominating the political scene in the country. It looks as one of them or a combination(?) of them will play a leading role in government formation at the center in 2014. They are playing hard to win the heart and mind of the Indian voter. But are they going to succeed? Yes and No.
Modi has the lead at the moment. The 63-year-old anointed as BJP's PM candidate in September, 2013 after brushing aside Advani's claim has launched a very well planned reasonably orchestrated campaign to impress the masses across the length and breadth of the country. Dozens of trains and scores of buses are pressed into service to fetch 'lakhs' of persons to fill the huge grounds to create record gatherings at well publicized meetings which are also simultaneously covered by all major TV channels. The campaign in the virtual world is also very well crafted and designed and a dedicated cyber army is playing its supportive role perfectly. His speeches were novel in the beginning but now sound stale and repetitive. Many a people are put off by the vitriol he pours on the PM and the mother and son of the first family of the Congress. Ninety percent of his speech is consumed by this attack on the trio leaving no time for his 'development' agenda. His oration and mimicry acts are though a hit with the crowds. His domination on TV channels in one way or the other was also becoming very monopolistic until Kejriwal replaced him.
Rahul is another player on the scene. Is he in or out is difficult to say with confidence. The 43-year-old is a very good example of a reluctant fighter being pushed into the ring by backers who seem to have far more confidence in him than he himself has. He comes out hurt and promises to perform better next time. But there does not seem to be any improvement. No other party leader has got so many chances to prove himself. The legacy of his family is turning out an albatross in his neck. That he does not have a grass root background is a serious drawback when compared to the other two players. He seems to be too long in the learning mode and when faced with defeats retreats back into it. He has so far not given any glimpse of his ideas, philosophy or development plans to the public. He is fond of holding captive classes for Congress workers. He is also afflicted by the Congress disease of silence. His problem is that his party consists of tired politicians who have ruled for long and would not mind taking a welcome break. This does not suit the young members who would be rendered unemployed. Also the compulsive corruption of many of his party's bigwigs and the subsequent efforts to protect them from prosecution does not go well with the increasingly alert voters. Poor Rahul finds himself helpless in such situations. The couple of times he has revolted have helped but that is not the way decisions can always be taken. He has ideas but are relentlessly lampooned by Modi and the fact that he is not a good orator also goes against him. It seems that the Congress party is working very hard to lose the election.
The third player is 45-year-old Kejriwal who in a period of almost one year has become a somebody from a nobody and today is the CM of Delhi. He has successfully garnered the anti-Congress vote to his outfit AAP leaving BJP gaping with wonder. The euphoria against corruption and corrupt practices that he has successfully created has built a protective firewall which BJP could not puncture to mop up a few independents and form government in Delhi like it would have done earlier on. Kejriwal the crusader is now Kejriwal the ruler. He has offered AAP as an alternative and not substitute to both the national parties. The voters seem to be in a mood to accept this untried alternative. Unlike Modi and Rahul, he is well educated and has also gained job experience before plunging into public life culminating with gaining political power in Delhi. The speed with which he has moved to fulfill the water and power promises of his manifesto has almost turned him into a rock star. His simple living and high thinking is a very powerful weapon which the designer kurta-clad Modi and on and off bearded Rahul will find difficult to match. The immense and impressive crowds that gathered at Ramleela ground for his swearing in were not brought in chartered trains or buses but came on their own. Kejriwal is turning out to be an astute player who knows how to involve the masses in decision making. He has gathered around himself a dedicated team of workers who are so far working dedicatedly and selflessly. The denial of availing of official perquisites and security cover by AAP ministers has also created a very favourable impression. First impression is the last impression and AAP has done it very effectively.
In his attempt to leap forward Modi seems to have got his one leg left dangling in air. Rahul is ever in preparation to launch himself. It is Kejriwal who has prepared well and leapfrogged ahead leaving the other two baffled and bewildered. The committed voters of both BJP and Congress may not opt for but fence sitters and uncommitted voters now have in AAP a viable alternative. By all accounts Congress is going to find it difficult to come back to power in 2014. It was thus a foregone conclusion that BJP led front would come to power. However if AAP spreads its wings in Delhi, adjoining States like Haryana, UP, Rajasthan and in Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra,Tamil Nadu and Kerala and the middle class urban voters propel it then Modi is going to find it very difficult to fulfill his dream of becoming PM. AAP has already started attracting politicians from other parties and increasing number of persons are joining it.
What can the BJP do to attract more voters to itself. Pretty little, chiefly because it has exhausted its ammunition by starting too early. Modi in his anxiety to get nominated as the PM candidate, forgot that in politics a week is a very long time, but instead sold the idea to his party, that in politics even a year is a short time. The Congress has itself to blame for its woes. It has been very badly let down by its own leaders who considered public money as their own and had the divine right to take as much they liked. The party was totally indifferent to public sentiments and is suffering from a mighty disconnect with the young generation and its aspirations. Most of its leaders are spent politicians but allegedly active fund guzzlers.They need a break. Rahul is a misfit in the party as his desire to change it is not well supported by a tired organisation consisting of satisfied members.
In such scenario AAP comes in as a fresh breeze in which voters like to stroll and partake it. Kejriwal comes out as a unlike usual politician who along with his band of supporters is seen as corruption proof. If they play their cards properly and do not succumb to the need to join hands with tainted politicians of other parties for increasing their chances of gaining more seats, Indian voter is in a solid mood to catapult them to dizzy heights which they themselves may not have imagined.
The incoming year is surely going to witness fantastic and complex scenarios on the political front. We have not discussed the role regional parties, equally strong in their states, can play. What till yesterday looked a foregone conclusion looks doubtful today and a totally new scenario may emerge tomorrow.
Long live the Indian voter !!
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