There is much backslapping and some intemperate statements by government ministers hailing the recent Burma operation against militants a "great success". The operation became inevitable after 18 Indian soldiers of the Dogra regiment were killed in an ambush. The prime minister himself authorised the operation and it was planned by Ajit Doval, security advisor to the government.
I have met many people on the road and at parties who have felt great satisfaction that anything from 50-150 militants have been killed. The first man to strike a discordant note was my friend from the local military police who opined the operation a failure. What really happened? Now I can write without anyone asking me how I got this information as IBN Live on 15 June broadcast that the operation was a failure as one of the camps was empty , with not a single militant available and in the second camp there were very few militants and the army could count only 8 bodies after the operation. One can stretch it and say that perhaps 10-12 militants were all that were killed.
The operation was thus a military failure. One of my friends still in service told me that the security advisor had no experience of any covert operation earlier and he was not prepared to strike like the Green Berets in Vietnam and the SEAL in Afghanistan. The requirement was to use heligunships for the attack as this would have saved at least an hour. The government and the advisor were not prepared to use gunships as it would violate the air sovereignty of Burma and escalate the operation. The troops were dropped some miles away from the camps and made it there by foot and all they could get were empty camps as the militants had fled.
In short it was a badly planned operation and no fault can be attached to the army for this. Worse many ministers began crow about the " success" of the operation and the fallout is not good. Burma is miffed at this operation and its unlikely they will allow another operation. The security advisor is now despatched to Rangoon to assuage the feelings of the Burmese. The damage is done by the government ministers from Raj Nath Singh downwards who have a lot to answer for. Such covert operations are firstly not advertised and they are only broadcast in case there is significant success. In this an operation that yielded just 10 militants killed is nothing to crow about. In turn we have antagonised the Burmese and this will affect future military cooperation.
Its best to be realistic and avoid chest thumping, that its a warning to Pakistan. Such talk can be dismissed as just talk. The reality is entirely different and such operations can only be a success when we match China militarily and overwhelm Pakistan, which is not the case.
The Kargil operation in Kashmir under the aegis of the BJP and the Vajpayee government is generally touted in the Indian press as a great victory. At the outset let me inform readers on Boddunan that I was very much part of the operations and what I write now is from personal knowledge. I feel the true facts are not represented to the Indian people and the operation talked off as a ' Victory' while in real terms it can be described as a stalemate. It is rarely mentioned that India suffered double the casualties in comparison to the enemy.
Kashmir is a mountainous country with thick jungles. The Line of Control is not clearly demarcated at many points and runs through thick forests and mountains. Some of the peaks like at Kargil are at great heights and in winter it becomes difficult to sustain troops at that altitude. Here is the first blunder committed by the Indian general staff. The Indian posts were vacated by the army on the Kargil heights as winter had set in. The idea was to go back to the bunkers when summer came. This was an extremely silly move and Pakistan took advantage of this.General Musharraf the Chief of staff of the Pakistan army made secret plans to engage Indians in kargil and kept even his Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in the dark.
In thick winter the troops of the Northern Light Infantry crept up to the vacated posts of the Indian army and occupied them. The idea was to present a fait accompli to the Indian army. it was a shrewd move and when summer came and the Indian army troops went back to their bunkers they were shot at and had to retreat. it was clear that the Pak army had occupied the heights.
An order to throw out the Pakistan army was given, but an attack by the army came a cropper with heavy casualities. A decision was taken to press in the Air Force and 155 mm heavy guns were brought in. These had an effect and slowly under heavy artillery fire and air bombardment in what is known as "close air support" the Indian army began to recapture the heights. But it was a terrible battle and the Indian army at places suffered 3 times the enemy dead and wounded.
At that time the army mentioned that opening another front in a place like Rajasthan in the Barmar sector would relieve pressure on Kargil. A siimilar action had been authorised by that little big man Lal Bahadur Shastri in the1965 war. A that time to relieve the pressure of the Pakistan army thrust in the Chamb- Jaurian Sector the Indian army was cleared to open a front in the Lahore sector. This is part of history and Bahadur Shastri deserves great praise for this action.
However Atal Bihari vajpayee was not made of same mettle and he did not authorise a invasion and opening of a second front as he wanted to end the war. He thus in a way deprived the army of a victory. In the meantime casualties were mounting, but the army was pushing the enemy back.
Bill Clinton the US president now stepped in. He brought about a cease fire. Nawaz Sharif who had been sidelined by his army chief agreed for a cease fire,though Musharraf was not in favor of it. Hostilities thus ended and the war was over. As per the terms of the cease fire the Pak army vacated the heights with with them, but it was a pyrrhic victory and at best stalemate. in hindsight the timid approach of the BJP government led by Vajpayee denied a complete victory to India.
Pakistan is the obverse image of India and has similar roots.The Pakistan army also has a shared history with the British Indian army and some of the Muslim regiments like the Punjab regiments and the Baluch regiments made a name for them in terms of bravery and loyalty in two World Wars. However the creation of a Muslim state with Islam as the state religion in 1947, was not a good thing for the army. The secular force nurtured by the English was forced into transition to a hard line Islamic force. Worse was to follow and the civilian leadership after the death of Mohammad Ali Jinnah failed to lead the country forward, resulting in a military coup by General Ayub Khan in 1958.
This was the beginning and the Pakistan army became like a man eating tiger, who having tasted human flesh is unable to give it up. It got enmeshed in politics and forgot all about its professional role. The Pakistan army generals who seized power were not mass leaders and they ruled with the gun at their side. During this period the Pakistan army created a world record by losing half its territory in the east, with the creation of Bangladesh. At that time the army in Pakistan was greatly discredited and a civilian leader named Zulfikar Ali Bhutto appeared on the scene.
Bhutto was not a perfect leader as he had a major hand in the breakup of Pakistan, but he was a mass leader and people saw in him a ray of hope. He became President of Pakistan and then all credit to him he got a constitution framed, which made him the prime minister.
In 1978 Bhutto was ousted in a military coup by another general named Zia ul Haq. This man had no mass following and compared to Bhutto was a pygmy. He however held the gun and seized power. The sad part is that Zia was appointed by Bhutto, by superseding 5 generals senior to him. Gratefulness is not a trait in some people.
Once Zia became President he plotted with his other corps commanders as to how to rule in perpetuity. All the generals agreed that the only way this was possible was in case Bhutto was removed from the scene, as the generals feared that once free Bhutto would again come back to power. A diabolical plan was hatched to try Bhutto on a murder charge and accordingly his trial commenced straightaway in the Punjab High Court. This showed the convoluted mind of the Pak generals who were not prepared to waste time and try Butto first in the Sessions court.
A fixed judiciary awarded the death sentence to Bhutto and though there was a formality of an appeal to the Pak Supreme Court, the death sentence was confirmed. Independent jurists have confirmed that the evidence against Bhutto was flimsy, but then Zia and the generals had decided to execute Bhutto. Bhutto was hung without any compunction.
I bring this point out now as once again the Pak prime minister Nawaz Sharif seems to be losing his hold and one can see that he is playing second fiddle to the army chief General Raheel Sharif. The general is strutting around as the de-facto power and Nawaz must be wary as earlier his chief of staff had ousted him in a coup and exiled him for 10 long years. In fact he would probably have been executed , but for the intervention of Saudi Arabia.
The Pakistan army has done it earlier, by executing Bhutto and sentencing Nawaz Sharif to exile and prison on a charge of treason. The present PM , better beware for history has an uncanny habit of repeating itself.
Narendra Modi came to power with a lot of goodwill. He promised a new era and and a new beginning , but one year down the line one must ask the question that, has he performed better than the Congress and the previous government headed by ManMohan Singh? I remember ManMohan Singh in an interaction with the press before the elections was asked how will history judge him. He replied that he thought history will judge him better than the media. He further also said without naming Modi, that it would be a disaster if Modi became prime minister of India. At that time one was apt to dismiss the observations of ManMohan Singh. In any case he led the Congress party to its worst electoral defeat in history.
Modi was now the darling of the press and the media and he began to create a image of a superman. But one year down the line a thought is creeping in that perhaps after all is said and done Modi is a man who has legs of clay. Most of his cliches like "Ache Din" and " make in India" have not proceeded furher than the paper on which they are written. The fact is the Media started eulogizing Modi and ManMohan Singh became the favorite whipping boy.
One year later things appear to be changing and the honeymoon period seems to be going. Modi is now being seen for what he has achieved. Frankly I find that their are waves of discomfort over the social media and Industry as well as farmers and the common man. Corporate world is also coming to grips with the fact that nothing much has changed. I will quote Deepak Parekh , one of the respected figures in the world of business. He says there is still a lot of optimism about the Modi government, but nine moths down the line no changes are taking place and one wonders why it is taking so long to implement all that is promised.
We must remember that Modi came to power by promising a change and "Ache Din", however it looks like all this has not materialized. Though inflation is down, yet food inflation is at a height. The " make in India" slogan has resulted in nothing new happening on the industrial front and despite all his efforts the Chinese are investing $ 46 billion in Pakistan and a fraction of that in India. His silence on communal incidents is damming and he failed to realize that all investments have to come from Christian nations and they are not happy with the Modi government reaction to attacks on Christians. The "ghar wapsi" program initiated by the RSS is a tinder box and one wonders what the Modi government is trying to achieve. Can they convert back 25-30 million Christians to Hinduism? After all these people became Christians or Muslims because of inequality in Hindu society. The Christian nations are not happy and Indian industrialist Kirloskar has cautioned the government and Modi on this. He has articulated that Modi must not forget that all the countries from whom he is expecting investment are Christian.
Has life improved under Modi? have the rapes stopped. Have women become or feel more secure ? The answer is a big no, and worse the BJP partner, the Akali Dal is a big culprit. There is disquiet among the farmers and the suicides have not stopped. I wonder where the "ache din' are? or maybe Modi has a different meaning for this word.
The stock market is also in doldrums. after an initial euphoria it has gone down. Industrial production has not peaked and exports are where they were. problems are mounting by the day. Modi has also not honored his promise of One Rank One Pension ( OROP) for the soldiers, which was a slogan he repeated from roof tops. All in all apart from a plethora of foreign trips Modi has nothing to show. These foreign trips are good for media coverage , but what are the tangible benefits and have the "ache Din" come ? one year is a fair amount of time and Modi has not shown that he can execute what he had promised. There are so many things, a uniform Civil Code, abolition of Article 370 on Kashmir and one finds that Modi is no better than the Congress.
Modi must beware that he is squandering the good will of the people. Rahul Gandhi is making a comeback. Modi must remember that the Indian people are now impatient and he better execute what he has promised. He must move forward and lead this great nation to its destiny, otherwise the bell tolls for all and that includes Modi.
I remember reading the BJP manifesto before the 2014 general elections. Among others promises it, delineated that a uniform civil code would be introduced in India and Article 370 which granted special status to Kashmir would be abolished. After reading, I was not too sure that BJP would really carryout these promises. After all Atal Bihari Vajpayee the ex BJP Prime Minister ruled for 6 years and nothing happened. There was not even a semblance of a debate during his time.
However many friends told me that this time it would be different. They opined that now the BJP is headed by a "dynamic" leader Narendra Modi and better, the BJP had an absolute majority in parliament. After all they said the BJP stand had been consistent on these two points for the last 50 years.
It appeared that the BJP will start a debate on these two contentious topics as a beginning. The endeavor to have a uniform civil code is part of the directive principles of the constitution and many felt this should have plain sailing. Article 370 is an addition by Nehru and not compatible with the concept of one India and one expected the BJP to start a discussion on how it was going to be removed.
But the BJP is all fire and smoke and and once the smoke clears, I do not find it better than the Congress party. Instead of asking for a discussion on article 370, the party compromised its principles by joining in a government headed by the PDP( a pro Pakistan party). It tacitly accepted that Article 370 would not be touched and the PDP leader Mehbooba shouted from roof tops that Article 370 is the corner stone of the states accession to India. The BJP and Narendra Modi kept quiet.
The fact is that the BJP is lusting for power, principles be dammed. One year down the line I have seen nothing that the BJP will honor its promise in the manifesto. This is not the only point, but even the battle against corruption is greatly watered down. More on that in another post.
Asa nationalist I am saddened as to where India is heading. When will we have a national leader like Subhash Chandra Bose? The Hindus lost earlier due to their own weakness and one hopes the same scenario is not repeated. There is a powerful China-Pakistan axis being built up and India may well end up second fiddle to them.
By not taking up these two issues mentioned in the manifesto has been a drawback on the part of the BJP and hurt the core community of their supporters. One cannot understand why the BJP and Narendra Modi compromised on article 370 and joined hands with the PDP. Joining the PDP has led to some of the worst anti India sentiments being openly propagated in Kashmir. Let alone abrogating Article 370, the BJP seems powerless to rein in the anti India and pro Pakistan agenda of the PDP. I wonder how Shyam Prasad Mukherjee the stalwart BJP leader must be feeling in death after the BJP jettisoned all talk of Article 370.
Similar is the case of a Uniform Civil Code. In no country of the world ( barring the Muslim Nations) is Islamic personal law allowed or followed. In fact nations like China have also banned fasting during Ramadan. This is an extreme, but surely the BJP can take the first steps to lay the groundwork of a common civil code. I wonder what worries the BJP, for a look at Goa will show that Muslims accept the common civil code. In the Portuguese state of Goa, the uniform civil code is law and the Sharia has a back seat. I wonder what stops the BJP from going ahead in implementing its manifesto. I can understand that it cannot be done in a day, but surely a discussion can commence and slowly the Sharia removed. It will require courage and so far Modi and the BJP do not seem equal to this task.
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