Background

After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the pendulum of world domination shifted to the Western world and for the next 200 years the British Empire was the greatest empire in the world.  After the end of World War I a new nation, young and vibrant appeared on the scene. In the next 2 decades  it replaced the British Empire and became the greatest power the world has ever known. It was the United states of America. 

All empires and world powers  have periods of decline and rise, but great men have appeared who have arrested what sometimes looks inevitable. After World War I, the cracks had started showing in the British Empire and though at that time not appreciated, it had started creaking. One of the most formidable men who appeared on the scene was Adolf Hitler. This man  rode to power on a promise of "Making Germany Great". He won the largest number of seats in the Reichstag and was invited to form the government by the the then Chancellor Von Hindenburg. If I remember it was in about 1933, this happened. Hitler came to power by a popular vote. Hitler had however realized that to dominate the world he would have to face the British Empire. But again a reading of his autobiography " Mien Kampf" brings out some weird ideas.

One of the weird ideas was his admiration of Britain. He did not consider the British as ' natural enemies', unlike the Eastern and Slav races who he considered inferior and lacking in intellect. At places he has also referred to them as sub-humans. Hitler if he had his way, would have liked to have a separate peace with the British  and expand at the expanse of area in the East meaning Russia.  This is his theme of " lebensraum"  or living space for the German people in the East.

Hitler and Churchill

Here he ran foul of a man named Winston Churchill, who was a die hard opponent of Hitler. He was also a great pragmatist and had realized that Hitler and the British could not live together and so he opposed Nazism and Hitler with all his might. It was because of Churchill that Hitler hardened his attitude towards Britain and decided to oppose it. But his warped mind could not appreciate that Churchill was no ordinary leader and his decision to call off " operation Sea Lion" was on of the colossal blunders of his life. " Operation Sea Lion" was the code name for the German invasion of England. In-lieu he planned the invasion of Russia.

Even earlier during the British retreat at Dunkirk, during the Battle of France ( 1940), Hitler inexplicably delayed an assault by his Panzers and allowed the British Expeditionary Force ( BEF) to escape. These soldiers re-grouped and gave the English under Churchill breathing space.

Churchill galvanized the English and his speech when he talked of 1941 as being " England's Finest Hour" shows the mettle of the man. In fact during the bleak period of  1940-41, England stood alone against Hitler as America had not entered the war, the Russians had signed a nonaggression pact with Germany and France had ceased to exist.  Churchill despite the odds being against the Empire stuck to his guns as he refuse all overtures of HItler, with a one point agenda to defeat Nazism. In short Churchill went against the general opinion that England would be better off  in making peace with Germany. Churchill simply refused to consider any such proposal.

Churchill had also strong racial views. He is reported to have said that the principles of Islam are not compatible with Western thought.He was also against Indian independence and all along felt that Indians were not capable of governing themselves and if the English left India there would be all around chaos. Despite these opinions, the fact is Churchill inspired the English to defend their empire. In fact he was the need of the hour and in case Churchill had not been around the history of the world would have been different.

 Many people opinion that Hitler would perhaps been more sympathetic to India. But a reading of his book ( Mien  Kampf) shows he had an entirely convoluted opinion of India. He felt that Indians were not capable of governing themselves and the British rule was good for India.

America Now

The fact is that Churchill shored up the Empire. It's another story that after World War II, the USA became the superpower and England went into decline.  The period after World War II, saw the rise of the USA, but as I have written  great empires have cusps  and downsides  and after the 20th century, the USA began to slowly lose its status.  the signs were all there and like Germany threatening the UK, America because of a weak and ineffectual president who had his own axe to grind allowed leadership of America to slacken. Maybe it is not apparent but the signs are ominous. Maybe it had something to do with the mental make up of Barack Obama, who was born a Muslim. In my visits to America, I have observed that most White Americans were not enamoured of Obama . As pointed out by the New York times,Obama won by a combination of votes and voting patterns.  Obama  however never controlled Congress which thwarted most of his moves, some of which would have let America down the alley of no return.

 The situation in America is now akin to what England faced in 1939, with a  rampaging Hitler breathing down the  neck of the English. Churchill then appeared and now America needs a similar man. There is a the Islamic  State hell bent on fighting the great Satan, China is showing its fangs right from the South China Sea to domination of the Pacific . For this it is constructing 12 aircraft carriers. North Korea is a nuclear power, in real terms  just a proxy for China and Vladimir Putin has great power dreams of what the Soviet Union was.  America is thus at a loss. It is no longer decisive as Obama has followed his own agenda. I suspect greatness of America was not a  part of this.

Donald Trump?

Most countries around the globe trust America and that is a fact that cannot be wished away. Some one decisive is needed. There is one man who fills the bill and he is Donald trump. He has talked of making "America Great" again. He is a man who has ruffled many feathers by his brazen comments, yet all this is required to set the tone for the future. At a time when America is faced with a threat to its domination, there is a need for a man who has a clear insight and vision. This is required by the American allies as well an many in the Middle East who are waiting for the promised offensive against the ISI. There was also a need to realize who is friend and foe and in this at least 2 presidents gravely erred. The removal of Gaddafi  and Saddam was one of them. The attacks by the ISI on Americans were not given the necessary priority and Obama literally tried to present it as a simple law and order  problem. One shudders at the coverup of the  killings of the US citizens and its  ambassador in Benghazi. Trump has not minced his words and language regarding Muslims and that makes him stand out. His dream of making America great looks at the moment , the right direction and has struck a favorite chord with the Americans.

Donald Trump has won so far, but to get the nomination is a long way off as yet. He is on the right track and despite even ruffling the Pope, he has not backed down from his demand to erect a fence on the Mexican border to stop the flow of illegal immigrants to the USA. He has also asked for a temporary ban on Muslims into the USA. This has upset Obama who has in a statement i opined that the American people will reject  Trump as president. All this is better said than done. 

One cannot forecast the future. Trump may or may not win , but there is definitely a need for a man with his views to come on stage. It is about time some one stood by  countries threatened by the powers like China and supported the moderates against the ISI and its ilk. There is also need for accommodation with Putin and whether that man is Trump will be seen in the coming election.

If Trump becomes President, the situation is similar to what happened when Churchill became PM. At that time Neville Chamberlain had signed the infamous Munich pact ( 1938)  and sold to Hitler. It will give the new President  a chance to rectify the ills of the last few years and the drift in American policy. The situation as it stands is similar to when Churchill appeared on the scene. One will have to wait and see, whether this will happen. In many ways the nexy US presidential election will be a watershed that will decide how long America remains a great power.

The US elections are followed by almost 80% of the world's population. This is because the US is the mightiest power on this globe with a reach that is worldwide. No other nation can match the USA, be it China or Russia.The earlier colonial powers France and England are riding piggy back on America, so America is presently the greatest power on this globe.Obviously the world is concerned as to who leads the USA as the US president is the one single factor that cannot be ignored by any nation.

The Americans seem to be disenchanted with the leadership of Obama, the present president. Many blame him for a dip in American prestige around the globe.  One good thing about the American election is that a president can get only 2, four year terms in office and after that he goes into retirement. This amendment was brought in after the end of World War II, which saw President Roosevelt getting elected for 4 terms. One wonders why we in India cannot have a similar restriction on the office of the Indian chief executive, the prime minister.

The US election process is long and tedious and lasts almost a year.To begin with the two main contending parties the Republicans and the Democrats have to select their nominee for the post of President. This is done by a party electoral process for each state of the Union. This process of electing  the candidate who will be the nominee for the post of president lasts almost 9-10 months. Elections are held in all the states and the man who wins the maximum electoral votes wins the party nomination.

The Democratic party led by President Barack Obama has been in power for 8 years and now its time to say bye to Obama. There are two main candidates in the fray namely Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Just a few weeks back Bernie was trailing Hillary by over 50 points, but there is a dramatic reversal. Bernie has bridged the gap and is now neck and neck with Hillary.

The first state to go for polls is Iowa. The results for the Democrats have been a dead heat with Hillary winning 50.3% of the vote and Bernie 49.5%.Though Hillary has claimed victory, she can't feel very comfortable. This is because Bernie has almost caught up with her and may very well go ahead of her  as other states vote.

The choice in the Democratic Party is just between Hillary and Bernie Sanders, but in the Republican party there are many contenders. For the last many weeks the man leading the pack was Donald Trump. His campaign seemed to be gathering steam as he established a lead of over 25 points over his nearest rival Ted Cruze.

Trump launched a campaign that had the theme that he wished to restore American prestige, eroded during the years Obama was in office. He also launched virulent attacks on Muslims and made the outrageous suggestion that Muslims be banned from entering the USA. He also proposed to racially profile Muslims in America, as was done by Roosevelt during the war years. At that time all Japanese who were residents of the USA were arrested and interred in camps.

Donald Trump seemed to be riding high and the press and the establishment expected Donald to win the Iowa primary. The results have however come as a shock and the  winner is Ted Cruze who has polled 28% of the vote to 24% for Donald Trump. This is a surprise and shows that what is apparent is not real. Probably Donald Trump miscalculated. Worse the third candidate  is just a point behind Trump with 23% of the vote. This in real terms shows a fractured mandate and one wonders whether this will be the theme of the Republican Party election.

One must point out that these are early days and there are still nearly 50+ states that have to vote, with big states like Texas and California coming up later. One cannot say that the Iowa primaries are a decisive factor. Donald trump may still pull his chestnuts out of the fire and come back with all guns blazing in teh subsequent primaries in the other states. One point that has been made is that small time candidates like Jeb Bush stand nowhere and many have scratched from the race.

The battle in the Repulican party, often called the Grand old Party  is really between Trump and Cruze, who is much younger than Trump. But it would be a fallacy to write off Trump, for the simple reason that he does have sizeable support. Many Americans identify with his views and one cannot say that Cruz has won.  It is a long hard road ahead.

As things stand who ever gets the republican nomination will go on to win the election. This victory will be more prouncenced in case Hillary wins the Democratic nomination. To my mind Hillary represents the status quo and the American public wants change. If Bernie gets the nomination the fight would be more even, but again the Republican charge will be difficult to blunt.

As far as the Republican nomination is concerned  it looks a toss-up between Trump and Cruze. All the pollsters had predicted a Trump victory, but it did not happen in Iowa. The election season in America is the toast not only of America, but the world. It is the greatest election and Indians could learn from it. Here we are dominated by caste and that makes our democracy very fragile. One hopes in the years to come we can have a similar election, where caste is not a factor at all. 

As far as my gut feeling goes, there is a good chance that Trump will forge ahead, but again one can't be sure.

In 1947, the Indian National Congress Party opted for a secular republic in preference to a Hindu Rashtra. The Congress party was then headed by 2 leaders Nehru and Gandhi who wanted to win over the Muslims. Gandhi in particular had a great desire to be a mascot for Muslims as well and was thus not averse to stooping low to placate them. This also rubbed off on  the second line leadership and a culture developed to pander to minority issues in the hope that they will accept being part of a national identity. Unfortunately Gandhi failed and despite a million acts of appeasement he was never recognised as a leader by the Muslims and Jinnah often contemptuously  referred to him as a "Hindu Leader".

Nehru had always Muslim leanings and many rumors float around about him and his father Motilal Nehru. These have a meaning as it shaped his thinking and in the ultimate analysis the Hindus were put in the back seat of the republic. 

Part of the problem was the docile nature of the Hindu  religion itself that made its followers more accommodating than combative and thus Frank Moraes coined the world " The meek and Mild Hindu". This meekness has manifested itself in many ways and also in everyday life. There are many examples to show that though Gandhi and Nehru were inclined to support the cause of the minority, the Hindus themselves at no stage displayed any single minded devotion to their cause  or issues affecting them.

An example that comes to mind is the Hindu reaction to the paintings of M.F. Hussain. This man who was a painter of some standing, depicted Hindu deities in a very demeaning manner.He showed the Prophets mother, and others fully clothed, yet he showed Hindu Deities unclad  and in the nude. The point to note is that despite such an affront no Hindu propagated a prize money for his head. There was no violence anywhere and except for a few sporadic sessions of burning his paintings nothing much happened. This shows the tolerance of the Hindu. The point to note is that there were no cases of burning Muslim houses and Hussain's houses in Mumbai were left untouched. Needless to say no Muslim or any Muslim organization thought it fit to reprimand Hussain or support the Hindus. In return we had sermons that acts of Hindus against Hussain were a sign of intolerance.

The above attitude of the Hindus can be contrasted with the action at the Azad Maidan riots in Mumbai. The rioters who were from the minority community desecrated the Amar Jawan Jyoti,  a war memorial dedicated to the first freedom struggle of 1857. The net result during this riot was that 2 people died and 54 were injured and that included 45 policemen. Property worth Rs 2.74 crores was damaged. Worse not a single Muslim leader or organization condemned this vandalism.

Akbarudin Owaisi is an intelligent man, yet he talks all rubbish about Hindu gods in his speeches. He sometimes mocks them. Yet this man roams around the country articulating his views and nobody from the Hindu community has ever asked for his hanging for uttering lies and profanities.

The Hindu community is in fact cowed down in their own land. They are perhaps gripped with a psychosis of fear as they find their own leaders from Lalu Prasad to the Congress  championing the cause of the minority. This has resulted in the minority community being emboldened and resorting to strong arm tactics everywhere, knowing fuly well that the Hindu reaction whether led by BJP or Congress will be a muted one.

Thus the arson and looting at Purnia and Malda is food for thought. Muslim mobs with a  purpose  fired bullets at Hindu homes, beat up police, burned vehicles and looted Hindu shops. It was a preplanned carnage and the icing on the cake was a statement by the Hindu Chief Minister of Bengal Mamta Banerjee that this riot was nothing,  but a clash between some locals and the BSF. One can't get sillier than that.

These riots were activated by some sleeper cells of Muslim  extremists in India, notably Hyderabad and was funded by the Muslim world. India as I had earlier written is labelled a soft state and the fact is that it's 100% true. The fault lies with the Hindus themselves as most believe in the inevitability of life and death and are content to let things pass. This approach led to their complete subjugation by Muslims for 900 years. One wonders how a race which constituted 95% of the population of the land allowed itself to be ruled by a alien force consisting of just 5% of the populace. The fact is the Hindus had lost the will to oppose and fight. Part of this belief was fostered by the ills of Hinduism and the failure to present a cohesive force to the invader. This resulted in  defeats galore and that further demoralized the Hindus.

After 1947, one  expected a change. However we now know that Sardar Patel was sidelined and died soon after independence. ( Read Last Days of the British Raj by Leonard Mosley). With Patel out the way Nehru had a field day and charted a  secularism that literally meant appeasement of the minority. He did not follow the Directive Principles of the Constitution for a common Civil Code and allowed the Muslims to be ruled by the Sharia in personal law.  He failed to look beyond his nose and observe that the Portuguese in Goa  had abolished the Sharia and applied the Uniform Civil Code to all and sundry including Muslims. The Muslims accepted the diktat there and perhaps they would have accepted a common civil code in India when the republican constitution was ushered in 1950. But, now too much water has gone down the river and one cannot see how equality of all religions can be restored.

Secularism really means a freedom to worship ones religion or practice his belief. It does not mean that a community is to be pampered. Another case is the ban on beef. Many Hindus are also going around saying that such a ban  is a sign of intolerance. They forget that 56 nations in the world have banned the slaughter of pigs and pork. Nobody has raised a finger on that. Yet if ONE nation bans cow slaughter, a hue and cry is made. One gets confused as to what real and what is artificial.

India missed the bus when a Hindu Rashtra was not declared in 1947. After all the division of India was on the basis of the "Two Nation Theory". The history books and Jinnah trumpet this and the fact is Gandhi and Nehru also accepted this religious divide. Who can contest it ?

The future is stark and unreal. Justice Katju is clear that India will have a revolution. Maybe be it will be 200 years late, but the Augean stables have to be cleaned and there is no way it can be done.

Background

America is the largest ( area wise) democracy in the world.To get an idea of its size, one can compare it to India and see that it covers a land area which is 5 times the size of India. America has been a democracy since 1776, when American War of Independence took place against the British. George Washington became the first president. Over almost 240 years the basic structure of American democracy is the same and consists of both direct and indirect election process.

The American election is a two tier system, where an electoral college elects the  president The electoral college consists of all the states of the union and each state is allotted a particular number of votes depending upon its population and area. Direct elections are held to determine which candidate wins a particular state. Thus a candidate will win all the electoral votes  of a state in case he wins by even one vote. This in effect is in a way a flawed syatem, as it can lead to a situation where a candidate may win in the USA on a minority vote, by virtue of him having bagged the electoral votes of a particular state. In 1984 Ronald Reagon became US president on a vote of just 25% of the eligble voters 

The American election is however a fairly representative election, but is a closed world as basically the entire scenario is dominated by 2 parties, namely the Republicans and Democrats. The proliferation of parties on liguistic and religious lines is not there , like in India. It is basically a two party system.

The Present election

The US will face another election as President Obama would have completed his term of 8 years. This is the maximum allowed by the US constitution. This limitation of two terms or 8 years was incorperated in the US constitution after World War II. Earlier there were no restrictions and President Roosevelt was able to get elected for 4 terms. 

Obama won the election on a splintered vote. The New York Times has noted after an analysis that Obama won as he polled 95% of the vote of Hispanics, coloreds and migrants. All he needed was a  minority of the white vote to sail into Parliament. The Blacks, Hispanics and other migrants constitute 27% of the US population and as such Obama won riding on their heads.

As President he was in a way divisive and many felt his loyalty to the US constitution was suspect, because of his Muslim  background. His family has been Muslims for generations and he himself admitted that he had gone to a "Muslim School"  while he was in Indonesia.

Obama toned down the war on terror and repeatedly emphasised that Islam was a peaceful religion. He also announced that America was no longer a Christian nation, when 90% of all Americans are Christians. Many Americasn are thus happy to see him go. I have during my visits to America been told by many Americans that the rise of Obama was an aberration and such a thing won't happen again.

The rise of the extreme right and Donald Trump

The period of Obama's presidency has led to a rise of the Muslim extremists who are what is known as Salafists( followers of hard line Islam).These groups fired with a zeal to restore the Caliphate all over the world have risen like the 9 head Hydra. During the term of Obama the ISIL and Daesh  have occupied a large area in Iraq and Syrai and tried to establish their rule. The area  is huge and is more than the area of France.

The leader of the ISI is Abu Baghdadi, a charismatic figure. Not many know that he was in detention in  US army custody , till ordered to be released by Obama in 2009. This man considers himself as the Caliph and despite many attempts to kill him by drones and other methods has survived. He has built up an aura of invincibility and his message has tremendous appeal for Muslims. The result is that Muslims from all over the world have enlisted to join the forces under Baghdadi. The ISI also spreads fear and this is enforced by mass killings and beheadings, duly recorded and broadcast on video.

Many American workers doing humanitarian work have been caught and beheaded. Baghdadi himself captured an American grl working as a aid worker and forcibly married and impregnated her. She was killed in a drone attack. In addition his appeal which transcends boundaries has led to terror attacks all over the world. In these attacks the local Muslim population acting as a fifth column, have facilitated these acts of carnage.

The result of all this is that the American people ( a large number of them) are bewildered. They are wondering whether their life style would be disrupted by infilteration of Muslims in all walks of life. They are further not reassured by the rhetoric of President Obama, that Islam is a peaceful religion.

Acts of terrorism and being a peaceful religion do not gel together and most Americans have realised the Pan World nature of Islam and the result is that 26 governors of US states have refused to take in Muslim refugees from the Middle East.

This is the reason that the leading contender at the moment for the Republican nomination is Donald Trump. Donald Trump may or may not get the nomination, but there is no doubt that he articulates many of the fellings of the US populace. Donald Trump has minced no words and feels Muslism in the USA are a threat. He has called for all Muslism to be registered and a ban on construction of mosques. The mosque is the symbol of Islam and one can see that Saudi Arabia offered to  build 1000 mosques in Europe for the Muslim refugees. In a way it acts as a divisive symbol as it is used to further the Wahabbi concept of Islam

Donald Trump is the leader at the moment among the republican candidates. He has also called for internment of suspected Muslims indulgimg or likely to indulge in activities of a prejudicial nature like Roosevelt did to the Japanese in the US during World war II. In a TV debate Trump was forthright and despite being called a fascist, has stuck to his views.

The American public at large are wary of Muslims who presently are a microscopic minority in the USA.( about2%). They fear that in case this number increase, the Muslims will  disrupt the life of an average American. America is a violent society and killings by guns is endemic. But Americans feel that guns by themselves are not the danger  and the real danger is a bigoted Muslim who may decide to destroy America from within.

Donald Trump represents a state of mind of the US voter and there is every chance that the next president will be one who will rein in Islamic fundamentalism and not allow Islam to flourish in America. Donald Trump may win or lose, but he has articulated the feelings of millions of Americans