The US election build-up is in full swing. As is the practice, the battle is only between 2 mainstream parties namely the Republican party and the Democrat party. However, though there is no bar to standing for election as an independent or as a representative of any other group or party, yet the chances of such a candidate winning is zero.
The two main contenders are Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. They represent the GOP or Republican party and the Democratic party. It's a neck-to-neck race, though the opinion polls point to a lead by Hillary over Donald by about 5 points. This is not the final word as the election is still some 3 months away. One really can't make any forecast as the situation is fluid and Donald can stage a comeback.
All the opinion polls have one thing in common. Almost all of them say that Donald at the very least has about 35-40% of the popular support. That's a lot of support and the question arises who are the people supporting the GOP nominee
For a clue, we have to see what Donald Trump has been articulating all these months. He has been
a) saying that immigrants including Hispanics and Mexicans be stopped from entering the country. In case it is required, he will construct a wall between Mexico and America to keep out the illegal immigrants.
b) stating that he would bar the entry of Muslims into the United Sates. He would also profile all Muslims in the USA and only those who forsake the Sharia will be allowed and all others deported.
These are strong sentiments and when stated in the inimical style of Donald trump, are incendiary material. Donald is also supported by the KKK and its ilk. The Ku Klux Klan is a vigilante organization that was active a few decades back and hunted blacks and negroes like animals.
Donald, in short, has the Afro-American, Muslims,colored and Mexicans, as well as Hispanics, ranged against him. There is hardly any support for Donald from these communities. These communities constitute 27% of the US electorate and Donald is well aware that his rhetoric has alienated the entire range of these communities. Probably he has factored this as his calculation is to try and win the majority support of the whites who constitute 72% of the US population.
Among the whites the intelligentsia and the erudite who swear by the American constitution are appalled by his pronouncements regarding Muslims and immigrants. They do not support him as well as the news media and TV who have editors from the Ivy league who feel Donald is going against the principles of the US constitution.But these constitute barely 10-15% of the entire white population. This leaves about 85% of the whites many of who are not educated or have had rudimentary education. This is the lot targeted by Donald and he hopes to garner massive support from this group and win the election. In short, Donald's support is from not very highly educated whites and lower rungs of the social ladder who feel their deprivation is because of immigrants and Muslims.
What I have stated is a dicey matter as one sect of whites who are having a grudge or not well off are the support base of Donald Trump. Such groups are easily led by the rhetoric of Trump against illegal immigration and Muslims. His declaration that he will declare war on the ISIS as well as treat them the same way as the ISIS treats its captured POWs strikes a chord with these people.
The Americans at the moment ( at least a large majority of whites) have a paranoid fear of Islam. Trump is playing on these fears by articulating his concept of world peace and his refrain " making America great" is to the liking of these white groups. No wonder the minorities are wary of Donald and will not vote for him. For they perceive that in the dream being unfolded by the GOP nominee, there is no place in the sun for them.
The battle lines are thus drawn and one will have to wait and see whether the permutations and combinations calculated by Trump will lead him to the White house. Hillary has the support of 99% of the coloreds and immigrants as well as Muslim and in case she can draw even with Donald for the votes of the whites, she should be home and dry.
In case Donald has to win, he needs at least 64-65% of the white vote and one will have to await the election in November to know who is the winner.