Will Jayalalitha's death change the political equation?

i dont have enough knowledge in the matter to comment on the equation with the center... but definitely there will be changes in the structure in TN. As i see it

1. The party may be headed for split with Sasikala and OPS leading a segment each

2. Sasikala or one of her relatives will become the face of AIADMK.. but how far the party will progress of win election needs to be seen. People blinded believed Amma,, so if sasikala comes she may be able to cash in on those sentiments. She also has a lot of time in hand since the next election is due only in 2019

3. Another possibility i see is some fraction of the MLA's moving to the opposition party with Stalin .. Sasikala Pushpa in particular. In that case AIADKM could loose their majority along with the power

Evrything said and done. AIADMK can not and will not be same without JJ. She was the party and the party was her.

I too feel that without Jayalalitha the party may find it difficult to carry on as before. Even her own personal legacy leaves a question mark since according to what I read she has not made a will.

Moments after the demise of Jayalaliyhaa change of guard happened in Chennai with Pannerselvam being sworn in as the next chief minister. In the absence of a dominant and a powerful Leader like Jayalalithaa who was able to keep the casteism from undermining the cohesiveness of the Party There is hardly any leader in the Party who can match her personality. It will be difficult if the ruling Party remains united without wavering. Now. How the new CM Panneerselvam, how he is going to perform and how his Party Leaders accept him has to be seen on future.

Definitely it is the loss of a great leader and a very popular one. I also agree with Divya that party might split ..Sasikala being a close aid to Amma might get herself fit into the popularity among Jayalalitha's followers. 

I also have a feeling that it might be an opportunity for national parties also to penetrate into TN and open their account. They might benefit with the unclear picture and lack of strong leader

Parties have survived after strong leaders like Congress after Indira or BJP after Vajpayee sob AIADMK can be expected ton outlive Amma. However time and power greed of key AIADMK  will decide.

There is no doubt that the political atmosphere in Tamil Nadu is going to change, as good or bad, Jayalalitha had a very strong personality which no one could ignore. Right now her party does not have anyone who could fill in her shoes. Being her close friend even if Sashikala take her place, it would be difficult for her to fill the gap left by Jayalalitha

Personally speaking, I admire Jayalalitha the person more than Jayalalitha the politician and the CM of  a state because she ruled with a iron hand and was very much an autocratic leader going by all reports. I give below a link that shows how she kept all her subordinates on a leash.

Without her influence , the present CM Pannerselvam might grow to become more confident and may become a more Democratic leader.

http://m.hindustantimes.com/india/tamil-nadu-where-the-cm-won-t-speak-and-officials-can-t-be-quoted/story-lZ3kuCxPI6Limg3a5tsUQN.html

Divya wrote:

i dont have enough knowledge in the matter to comment on the equation with the center... but definitely there will be changes in the structure in TN. As i see it

1. The party may be headed for split with Sasikala and OPS leading a segment each

2. Sasikala or one of her relatives will become the face of AIADMK.. but how far the party will progress of win election needs to be seen. People blinded believed Amma,, so if sasikala comes she may be able to cash in on those sentiments. She also has a lot of time in hand since the next election is due only in 2019

3. Another possibility i see is some fraction of the MLA's moving to the opposition party with Stalin .. Sasikala Pushpa in particular. In that case AIADKM could loose their majority along with the power

Evrything said and done. AIADMK can not and will not be same without JJ. She was the party and the party was her.

Sasikala is not smart like Jaya lalita. it is looking hard that she will keep party intact.

anil wrote:

Divya wrote:

i dont have enough knowledge in the matter to comment on the equation with the center... but definitely there will be changes in the structure in TN. As i see it

1. The party may be headed for split with Sasikala and OPS leading a segment each

2. Sasikala or one of her relatives will become the face of AIADMK.. but how far the party will progress of win election needs to be seen. People blinded believed Amma,, so if sasikala comes she may be able to cash in on those sentiments. She also has a lot of time in hand since the next election is due only in 2019

3. Another possibility i see is some fraction of the MLA's moving to the opposition party with Stalin .. Sasikala Pushpa in particular. In that case AIADKM could loose their majority along with the power

Evrything said and done. AIADMK can not and will not be same without JJ. She was the party and the party was her.

Sasikala is not smart like Jaya lalita. it is looking hard that she will keep party intact.

Shashikala may be smarter and much more manipulative than one expects if the reports are to be believed. According to Tehelka she probably was slow poisoning Jayalalitha and also got all the MLAs to sign on black paper a few hours before Jayalalitha breathed her last. She is also very much in possession of Jayalalithas expensive house and property..

Jayalalitha's death is certainly going to change the political equations in TN, no doubt about it. Paneerselvam was a close confidante of Jayalalitha and has seen closely how she worked and I doubt if he will have much difficulty completing the term as a CM. However, keeping the party intact will be the greatest challenge before him as there are going to conflicts between his and Sasikala supporters. BJP has already moved in, Narendra Modi had already extended his hand in friendship to Jayalalitha and his personal presence to pay tributes to her within hours of her demise is a sure sign that BJP is going to try and enter the state.

usha manohar wrote:

anil wrote:

Divya wrote:

i dont have enough knowledge in the matter to comment on the equation with the center... but definitely there will be changes in the structure in TN. As i see it

1. The party may be headed for split with Sasikala and OPS leading a segment each

2. Sasikala or one of her relatives will become the face of AIADMK.. but how far the party will progress of win election needs to be seen. People blinded believed Amma,, so if sasikala comes she may be able to cash in on those sentiments. She also has a lot of time in hand since the next election is due only in 2019

3. Another possibility i see is some fraction of the MLA's moving to the opposition party with Stalin .. Sasikala Pushpa in particular. In that case AIADKM could loose their majority along with the power

Evrything said and done. AIADMK can not and will not be same without JJ. She was the party and the party was her.

Sasikala is not smart like Jaya lalita. it is looking hard that she will keep party intact.

Shashikala may be smarter and much more manipulative than one expects if the reports are to be believed. According to Tehelka she probably was slow poisoning Jayalalitha and also got all the MLAs to sign on black paper a few hours before Jayalalitha breathed her last. She is also very much in possession of Jayalalithas expensive house and property..

Very rightly said. Sasikala is smarter and more so now since all her family is back on the center stage unlike before when JJ had kept them away. She had also tried slow poisoning her way back in 2011. After which they had a  fallout. But they soon came back together. With JJ gone both she and her extended family would definitely claim stake not only on the party but also on her asserts (absence of a will is going to make matters easier for them i guess). 

Sharing an ndtv new link, which talks about a midnight coup Usha talked about. Its shocking that as per the report JJ had died even before 2PM on Monday, but it was declared only 12 AM the next day. 

http://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/sasikala-natarajans-alleged-midnight-coup-stunned-jayalalithaas-party-1635220

Very rightly said. Sasikala is smarter and more so now since all her family is back on the center stage unlike before when JJ had kept them away. She had also tried slow poisoning her way back in 2011. After which they had a  fallout. But they soon came back together. With JJ gone both she and her extended family would definitely claim stake not only on the party but also on her asserts (absence of a will is going to make matters easier for them i guess). 

Sharing an ndtv new link, which talks about a midnight coup Usha talked about. Its shocking that as per the report JJ had died even before 2PM on Monday, but it was declared only 12 AM the next day. 

http://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/sasikala-natarajans-alleged-midnight-coup-stunned-jayalalithaas-party-1635220

It is true that she was dead long before it was actually declared. If you have been following news of the last day, you will notice that the flag was taken off at half mast but as soon as people started throwing stones and unrest was seen to be brewing, the authorities immediately declared that they were taking efforts to revive her and the flag was once again hoisted at full mast. So to avoid toptal unrest and a state of chaos, to avoid danger to life of other patients, decision to declare her demise was postponed for later at midnight when people are generally tired and a little more receptive of the sad news. It was a matter of law and order and nothing else/

Kalyani Nandurkar wrote:

Very rightly said. Sasikala is smarter and more so now since all her family is back on the center stage unlike before when JJ had kept them away. She had also tried slow poisoning her way back in 2011. After which they had a  fallout. But they soon came back together. With JJ gone both she and her extended family would definitely claim stake not only on the party but also on her asserts (absence of a will is going to make matters easier for them i guess). 

Sharing an ndtv new link, which talks about a midnight coup Usha talked about. Its shocking that as per the report JJ had died even before 2PM on Monday, but it was declared only 12 AM the next day. 

 

http://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/sasikala-natarajans-alleged-midnight-coup-stunned-jayalalithaas-party-1635220

It is true that she was dead long before it was actually declared. If you have been following news of the last day, you will notice that the flag was taken off at half mast but as soon as people started throwing stones and unrest was seen to be brewing, the authorities immediately declared that they were taking efforts to revive her and the flag was once again hoisted at full mast. So to avoid toptal unrest and a state of chaos, to avoid danger to life of other patients, decision to declare her demise was postponed for later at midnight when people are generally tired and a little more receptive of the sad news. It was a matter of law and order and nothing else/

 

Yes you are right Kalyani. But there is an ambiguity there as well. It was thanthi TV which first flashed the news, without mentioning the source. This happened late in the evening around 6 o clk i think. But if you hear the full ndtv story, it says the sasikala clan claimed even before 2PM she was dead. The full story points to something more fishy, than just the law and order situation.

Divya wrote:

Kalyani Nandurkar wrote:

Very rightly said. Sasikala is smarter and more so now since all her family is back on the center stage unlike before when JJ had kept them away. She had also tried slow poisoning her way back in 2011. After which they had a  fallout. But they soon came back together. With JJ gone both she and her extended family would definitely claim stake not only on the party but also on her asserts (absence of a will is going to make matters easier for them i guess). 

Sharing an ndtv new link, which talks about a midnight coup Usha talked about. Its shocking that as per the report JJ had died even before 2PM on Monday, but it was declared only 12 AM the next day. 

http://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/sasikala-natarajans-alleged-midnight-coup-stunned-jayalalithaas-party-1635220

It is true that she was dead long before it was actually declared. If you have been following news of the last day, you will notice that the flag was taken off at half mast but as soon as people started throwing stones and unrest was seen to be brewing, the authorities immediately declared that they were taking efforts to revive her and the flag was once again hoisted at full mast. So to avoid toptal unrest and a state of chaos, to avoid danger to life of other patients, decision to declare her demise was postponed for later at midnight when people are generally tired and a little more receptive of the sad news. It was a matter of law and order and nothing else/

Yes you are right Kalyani. But there is an ambiguity there as well. It was thanthi TV which first flashed the news, without mentioning the source. This happened late in the evening around 6 o clk i think. But if you hear the full ndtv story, it says the sasikala clan claimed even before 2PM she was dead. The full story points to something more fishy, than just the law and order situation.

Every thing is possible in Politics. Power mongers will go to any extent to grab the power. Sasikala is not an exception.

Definitely, because whatever she did in her state was tremendous and a fabulous job which I think that nobody can achieve up to that level, she was only 10 pass but she has the golden heart which I think only some of the politician has.

usha manohar wrote:

anil wrote:

Divya wrote:

i dont have enough knowledge in the matter to comment on the equation with the center... but definitely there will be changes in the structure in TN. As i see it

1. The party may be headed for split with Sasikala and OPS leading a segment each

2. Sasikala or one of her relatives will become the face of AIADMK.. but how far the party will progress of win election needs to be seen. People blinded believed Amma,, so if sasikala comes she may be able to cash in on those sentiments. She also has a lot of time in hand since the next election is due only in 2019

3. Another possibility i see is some fraction of the MLA's moving to the opposition party with Stalin .. Sasikala Pushpa in particular. In that case AIADKM could loose their majority along with the power

Evrything said and done. AIADMK can not and will not be same without JJ. She was the party and the party was her.

Sasikala is not smart like Jaya lalita. it is looking hard that she will keep party intact.

Shashikala may be smarter and much more manipulative than one expects if the reports are to be believed. According to Tehelka she probably was slow poisoning Jayalalitha and also got all the MLAs to sign on black paper a few hours before Jayalalitha breathed her last. She is also very much in possession of Jayalalithas expensive house and property..

Yes I also read about slow poisoning. She is also hold of Jaya's properties, In coming days some other claimant may be put their claim. I thinK Shashi will not keep together all MLA of AIDMK.

Surely it will change. After all it did when MGR died and Jaylaltha emerged sidelining Janaki wife of MGR. The power equation needs to be solved.

I feel that unless AIADMK consolidates it's position, the going will be tough since DMK is not far behind, having lost only with a marginal difference in the last election,  in spite of Ammas larger than life presence. 

i feel sooner or later BJP will make its inroads in TN with the support of OPS. Sasikala is likely to be sidelined. 

Even I have a feeling that it is the right time for BJP and other national parties to penetrate into TN politics which has been so far dominated by local parties. Let politics go national level in TN though the local leaders like Amma have always played a crucial role in Central politics.