Can India Break up?

rambabu wrote:

MG Singh wrote:

As on date the NE states will secede from India if the army is withdrawn. I know I spent a total of 10 years there. Kashmir , particularly the valley is rabid anti Hindu and India

 

I value your opinion. You are the one who lived as a soldier in the actual conditions.

Anyhow as a common man, out of curiosity, I would like to know what happens if such a situation arises in NE states. We are already living with such conditions with Pakistan's militant activities since independence and we are dealing with them as the conditions dictate. Can

 India not face in a similar way?

 

I am also the one who lived in army camps during my projects management for BRO (Border Road Organization, Gulshan Ji was also part of that organization). I have lived in various bordering states including Kashmir and have lived with the terror while bombs, ID Blasts and firing were routine business.

 

suni51 wrote:

rambabu wrote:

MG Singh wrote:

As on date the NE states will secede from India if the army is withdrawn. I know I spent a total of 10 years there. Kashmir , particularly the valley is rabid anti Hindu and India

 

I value your opinion. You are the one who lived as a soldier in the actual conditions.

Anyhow as a common man, out of curiosity, I would like to know what happens if such a situation arises in NE states. We are already living with such conditions with Pakistan's militant activities since independence and we are dealing with them as the conditions dictate. Can

 India not face in a similar way?

 

I am also the one who lived in army camps during my projects management for BRO (Border Road Organization, Gulshan Ji was also part of that organization). I have lived in various bordering states including Kashmir and have lived with the terror while bombs, ID Blasts and firing were routine business.

 

Too good Sunil. There is nothing like realistic view as you and Gulshanjee had. A commoner mostly guesses and most of them end up as mere guesses .

 

 

MG Singh wrote:

chinmoymukherjee wrote:

At this point of time I don't see any merit in this question. It is true that there were times,say, some twenty or thirty years down the line that the scenario looked quite bleak and now we are well past it. The Indian state is quite and more capable of defending the integrity of the country than ever before. China and the USA have been at it for quite some time to hard-sell this piece of idle fantasy to no avail . In fact in the late sixties the top US  leadership was convinced that India would break up under the weight of diversity but it took years to learn the hard way that it has been an asset for India - that typical India spirit which continues to act as a glue. Now the question of involvement of the military in civil matters, what is the ratio of such involvement given to India's geographical spread. Countries of far less size of that of a small India state with no cultural or lingual diversity have permanent military presence to keep a semblance of stability. The military might. alone can't ensure integrity of a state as the the break-up of the USSR and Bulgaria would amply demonstrate. After all we have never sent tanks to crush our own people to tackle domestic instability.China would do better to introspect on its own policies and future rather than meddling in the internal matters of India!   

The Indians used the Air Force to bombard Aizawl in Mizoram in 1966 and overall APC and latest weapons are used against the separatists. Fighter bombers from Jorhat were used.This is just for info. I suggest before making any comment about NE India and Kashmir a visit there will be a help. These peripheral areas are waiting to break away if there is no army. Now the IAF is going to use MI 17 heligunships( I used to fly them)  against them. The problem is not with India , but only with certain regions like the North east. 

Technocrats have a way of viewing things from their own angle which is very different and as it should be ,from  others. What I alluded to - which was the Chinese barbaric crushing of a peaceful democratic movement - is nowhere comparable to bombing by Fighter planes of positions of groups of insurgents making their aggressive,hostile designs clear with full moral and material support from China as well as other countries. As far as use of military is concerned it is doubtless true that we have been puzzlingly apologetic about but it has been not without reason given to the fact that we have a democracy. It is equally true that plain,brute force has not yielded any significant or better results elsewhere in the world. Look at Israel! I am also not very clear about what do you suggest by being 'ruthless'? Use of genocidal methods? Large scale change of demographic character of these regions? I have never heard any retired head of forces advocating any such surrealistic line of thinking! In fact if there is any common element in their views, it is greater emphasis on seeking a political solution to these problems. Reasons are not to far to seek. They are hard-headed and hard-nosed enough to know that the principal villains in the piece of this murky drama are China and its dirty hand Pakistan. And any impulsive and adventurists step on the part of India would only bring us into a direct and catastrophic confrontation with it leading to consequences too dreadful to contemplate. That is the reality whether I visited or visit these parts of India, won't materially change this stark reality! 

usha manohar wrote:

MG Singh wrote:

As on date the NE states will secede from India if the army is withdrawn. I know I spent a total of 10 years there. Kashmir , particularly the valley is rabid anti Hindu and India

 

When that is the case , there are only two options left - ask those who are anti India to leave and go where they want , the other option is to give the entire region away so that they form a nation of their own and realise for themselves how difficult and treacherous the path is...

 

@Usha

 

As I have stated in my earlier post that there are many countries with such problems and the military happens to provide a kind of solution with a short-term perspective. Venting frustrations by suggesting extreme measures has an air of impracticality in it. No responsible sections of forces could be so enthused as to the effectiveness of a military solution. If look at the history of Pakistan, it would be clear that punctuation of military and civil rule underlines the dilemma of such a proposition. It goes to the credit of our leaders of forces - both past and present- have reposed faith in our political system. Albeit our political leader have let them down very badly, yet they haven't  harbored any illusion unlike their Pakistani counterparts. The best bet that India can have is to pursue both. A peaceful,purposeful and political negotiation as well as firm show of its and strength and resolve. Any short-circuiting is devoid of intellectual substance and pathetic demonstration of helplessness and frustration.       

chinmoymukherjee wrote:

usha manohar wrote:

MG Singh wrote:

As on date the NE states will secede from India if the army is withdrawn. I know I spent a total of 10 years there. Kashmir , particularly the valley is rabid anti Hindu and India

 

When that is the case , there are only two options left - ask those who are anti India to leave and go where they want , the other option is to give the entire region away so that they form a nation of their own and realise for themselves how difficult and treacherous the path is...

 

@Usha

 

As I have stated in my earlier post that there are many countries with such problems and the military happens to provide a kind of solution with a short-term perspective. Venting frustrations by suggesting extreme measures has an air of impracticality in it. No responsible sections of forces could be so enthused as to the effectiveness of a military solution. If look at the history of Pakistan, it would be clear that punctuation of military and civil rule underlines the dilemma of such a proposition. It goes to the credit of our leaders of forces - both past and present- have reposed faith in our political system. Albeit our political leader have let them down very badly, yet they haven't  harbored any illusion unlike their Pakistani counterparts. The best bet that India can have is to pursue both. A peaceful,purposeful and political negotiation as well as firm show of its and strength and resolve. Any short-circuiting is devoid of intellectual substance and pathetic demonstration of helplessness and frustration.    

 

From what I see, the problem has escalated only because of the lack of will by the previous governments ,trying to appease the minorities and also pleasing the omar Abdullahs who were playing a double game of their own ...Pakistan and China have of course taken full advantage of our weakness and used it to their advantage.What BJP is going to do and how they are going to handle this situation will prove to be crucial for the nation and for their own existence as a party that delivers ..It is not an easy task since they have inherited an impossible situation from the previous governments misrule.   

Pak and China connects with each other through land route of Pal occupied Kashmir, through Gilgit and other routes and recently, China helps Pak to build bride and hydro electricity projects there, and India oppose this and stopped this from completion, it is the correct way to move forward. In terms of Tibet issue, I think, it should be left to China, India should not have meddle in the past, and it should provide good direction, as former PM vajpayee supported this and that results in China almost approving Arunna Chanl Pradesh for India but later on decade rule of UPA messed things up again. Relationship with Bhutan and Bangladesh is at its all times peak and that would curve terrorism popping up in their lands. Myanmar also helping India very much and India security agencies working with nicely with Nepal and Sri Lanka but ragged state Pak is creating problem, here only stick policy is going to create immense victory for India, recently, Pak trying to build permanent watch tower nearer to LOC which Indian forces blasted it out, so all these short term goals would slowly move towards much profitable successful future. Definitely a shift of focus of policy of foreign affairs. 

Everybody agrees that India has shown a different attitude in Myanmar by being aggressor. This is certainly a change in strategical tactics of Indian defense forces. Even a central minister gave a press statement in this regard was published in BBC news. Above all, The PM of India has publicly declared that the armed forces are given the freedom  to course their own strategy suitable to the occasion. With all this, and a strong will to solve this ever burning problem I don't see why we should  fail in our endeavors to  keep the country united.

usha manohar wrote:

chinmoymukherjee wrote:

usha manohar wrote:

MG Singh wrote:

As on date the NE states will secede from India if the army is withdrawn. I know I spent a total of 10 years there. Kashmir , particularly the valley is rabid anti Hindu and India

 

When that is the case , there are only two options left - ask those who are anti India to leave and go where they want , the other option is to give the entire region away so that they form a nation of their own and realise for themselves how difficult and treacherous the path is...

 

@Usha

 

As I have stated in my earlier post that there are many countries with such problems and the military happens to provide a kind of solution with a short-term perspective. Venting frustrations by suggesting extreme measures has an air of impracticality in it. No responsible sections of forces could be so enthused as to the effectiveness of a military solution. If look at the history of Pakistan, it would be clear that punctuation of military and civil rule underlines the dilemma of such a proposition. It goes to the credit of our leaders of forces - both past and present- have reposed faith in our political system. Albeit our political leader have let them down very badly, yet they haven't  harbored any illusion unlike their Pakistani counterparts. The best bet that India can have is to pursue both. A peaceful,purposeful and political negotiation as well as firm show of its and strength and resolve. Any short-circuiting is devoid of intellectual substance and pathetic demonstration of helplessness and frustration.    

 

From what I see, the problem has escalated only because of the lack of will by the previous governments ,trying to appease the minorities and also pleasing the omar Abdullahs who were playing a double game of their own ...Pakistan and China have of course taken full advantage of our weakness and used it to their advantage.What BJP is going to do and how they are going to handle this situation will prove to be crucial for the nation and for their own existence as a party that delivers ..It is not an easy task since they have inherited an impossible situation from the previous governments misrule.   

 @Usha

 

Looking back India squandered away rare opportunities to settle the Kashmir issue once for all when we had Pakistan kneeling before us. And Nehru and his daughter handled in such a ham-handed manner that the problem has been allowed to fester. In fact, the Congress-led governments have a lot to offer by way of explanation in this regard. In 1965 itself the government under Shastriji coming under the influence of the USSR miserably failed to leverage our decisive military gains to settle the issue. A rare chance presented itself in 1971 and here again we made a complete mess of it. We allowed Pakistan to go nuclear and now the entire scenario has undergone a sea change. I do believe very sincerely that our forces have suffered silently the great injustice perpetrated by our political leadership. 

There are grave mistakes done by politicians in the past but one should look beyond and try to rectify such mistakes with strong decision making. 

Let's not discuss about the mistakes committed by past governments. The present one is a new government with new Defense strategies. By all likelihood the new policies will prevent from Breaking of India. This was announced by PM Narendra Modi himself.

I do not think at any point of time India was at the verge of breaking but what looms large is the shadow decision making which creates more conflict zones, and the present government aims to eradicate such mistakes with stronger decision system and policy making. 

Yes. The present government is very clear about it's needs to put an end to this ever burning problem. which was the undoing of the past governments. Now the things will be no more like earlier. Recent Maynmar operation shows this aspect.

Mao tse tung wrote " political power comes out of the barrel of a gun."  Please remember that decision making capability comes only after military capability. presently India is not in a position to match China and at the ,most we have parity with Pakistan. Burma or an operation in bhutan are chicken feed. one should not forget that Rajiv Gandhi intervened in Lanka as well as ordered operations in Seychelles. So decision making capability is directly proportional to military capability. that is one reason Indian never attempted a Bin Laden to nab Dawood.

Military capability comes only when Military powers are made independent. so that it can chalk out it's strategy without the intervention of the Government . Right now operations in Myanmar may look chicken feed. But a beginning has been made. Let's see what the future holds for this country.

I do not think at any point of time China will want to engage with India in battle field, war on sixties are different, though it is true that there is no parity with China in terms of military excellence, but India is no chicken and if war fought there will be equal losses, due to high level of military excellency of India. 

Now in the present conditions India can face any challenge posed by any country

mohan manohar wrote:

I do not think at any point of time China will want to engage with India in battle field, war on sixties are different, though it is true that there is no parity with China in terms of military excellence, but India is no chicken and if war fought there will be equal losses, due to high level of military excellency of India. 

This is not the opinion of military intelligence as a short war like in 62 to humiliate India is on cards. The government has been apprused of it  but there is no action. Only 3 divisions face Chinas 30.

rambabu wrote:

Now in the present conditions India can face any challenge posed by any country

 

Facing a challenge and winning is two different things. Faccing a challenge is old Hibdu defensive strategy. 

To change strategy is only with overwhelming military superioirity, which we don't have as . We can't even take Azad kashmir back and getting freedom for Tibet a fantasy. As a soldier morale , weapenry and strength must be augumented.

 

MG Singh wrote:

rambabu wrote:

Now in the present conditions India can face any challenge posed by any country

 

Facing a challenge and winning is two different things. Faccing a challenge is old Hibdu defensive strategy. 

To change strategy is only with overwhelming military superioirity, which we don't have as . We can't even take Azad kashmir back and getting freedom for Tibet a fantasy. As a soldier morale , weapenry and strength must be augumented.

 

I agree the first step to win a war, it is necessary the country should have Military superiority. I sincerely feel with the change in Military strategy, the new government will certainly try the all important Military superiority sooner than later. Being a soldier you know better than a commoner like me that things take time for the things to happen.

 

 

@MG Singh with due honor to you please write POK or Pak occupied Kashmir not the so called Azad Kashmir.