Will Jayalalitha's death change the political equation?

usha manohar wrote:

anil wrote:

Divya wrote:

i dont have enough knowledge in the matter to comment on the equation with the center... but definitely there will be changes in the structure in TN. As i see it

1. The party may be headed for split with Sasikala and OPS leading a segment each

2. Sasikala or one of her relatives will become the face of AIADMK.. but how far the party will progress of win election needs to be seen. People blinded believed Amma,, so if sasikala comes she may be able to cash in on those sentiments. She also has a lot of time in hand since the next election is due only in 2019

3. Another possibility i see is some fraction of the MLA's moving to the opposition party with Stalin .. Sasikala Pushpa in particular. In that case AIADKM could loose their majority along with the power

Evrything said and done. AIADMK can not and will not be same without JJ. She was the party and the party was her.

Sasikala is not smart like Jaya lalita. it is looking hard that she will keep party intact.

Shashikala may be smarter and much more manipulative than one expects if the reports are to be believed. According to Tehelka she probably was slow poisoning Jayalalitha and also got all the MLAs to sign on black paper a few hours before Jayalalitha breathed her last. She is also very much in possession of Jayalalithas expensive house and property..

Very rightly said. Sasikala is smarter and more so now since all her family is back on the center stage unlike before when JJ had kept them away. She had also tried slow poisoning her way back in 2011. After which they had a  fallout. But they soon came back together. With JJ gone both she and her extended family would definitely claim stake not only on the party but also on her asserts (absence of a will is going to make matters easier for them i guess). 

Sharing an ndtv new link, which talks about a midnight coup Usha talked about. Its shocking that as per the report JJ had died even before 2PM on Monday, but it was declared only 12 AM the next day. 

http://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/sasikala-natarajans-alleged-midnight-coup-stunned-jayalalithaas-party-1635220

Very rightly said. Sasikala is smarter and more so now since all her family is back on the center stage unlike before when JJ had kept them away. She had also tried slow poisoning her way back in 2011. After which they had a  fallout. But they soon came back together. With JJ gone both she and her extended family would definitely claim stake not only on the party but also on her asserts (absence of a will is going to make matters easier for them i guess). 

Sharing an ndtv new link, which talks about a midnight coup Usha talked about. Its shocking that as per the report JJ had died even before 2PM on Monday, but it was declared only 12 AM the next day. 

http://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/sasikala-natarajans-alleged-midnight-coup-stunned-jayalalithaas-party-1635220

It is true that she was dead long before it was actually declared. If you have been following news of the last day, you will notice that the flag was taken off at half mast but as soon as people started throwing stones and unrest was seen to be brewing, the authorities immediately declared that they were taking efforts to revive her and the flag was once again hoisted at full mast. So to avoid toptal unrest and a state of chaos, to avoid danger to life of other patients, decision to declare her demise was postponed for later at midnight when people are generally tired and a little more receptive of the sad news. It was a matter of law and order and nothing else/

Kalyani Nandurkar wrote:

Very rightly said. Sasikala is smarter and more so now since all her family is back on the center stage unlike before when JJ had kept them away. She had also tried slow poisoning her way back in 2011. After which they had a  fallout. But they soon came back together. With JJ gone both she and her extended family would definitely claim stake not only on the party but also on her asserts (absence of a will is going to make matters easier for them i guess). 

Sharing an ndtv new link, which talks about a midnight coup Usha talked about. Its shocking that as per the report JJ had died even before 2PM on Monday, but it was declared only 12 AM the next day. 

 

http://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/sasikala-natarajans-alleged-midnight-coup-stunned-jayalalithaas-party-1635220

It is true that she was dead long before it was actually declared. If you have been following news of the last day, you will notice that the flag was taken off at half mast but as soon as people started throwing stones and unrest was seen to be brewing, the authorities immediately declared that they were taking efforts to revive her and the flag was once again hoisted at full mast. So to avoid toptal unrest and a state of chaos, to avoid danger to life of other patients, decision to declare her demise was postponed for later at midnight when people are generally tired and a little more receptive of the sad news. It was a matter of law and order and nothing else/

 

Yes you are right Kalyani. But there is an ambiguity there as well. It was thanthi TV which first flashed the news, without mentioning the source. This happened late in the evening around 6 o clk i think. But if you hear the full ndtv story, it says the sasikala clan claimed even before 2PM she was dead. The full story points to something more fishy, than just the law and order situation.

Divya wrote:

Kalyani Nandurkar wrote:

Very rightly said. Sasikala is smarter and more so now since all her family is back on the center stage unlike before when JJ had kept them away. She had also tried slow poisoning her way back in 2011. After which they had a  fallout. But they soon came back together. With JJ gone both she and her extended family would definitely claim stake not only on the party but also on her asserts (absence of a will is going to make matters easier for them i guess). 

Sharing an ndtv new link, which talks about a midnight coup Usha talked about. Its shocking that as per the report JJ had died even before 2PM on Monday, but it was declared only 12 AM the next day. 

http://www.ndtv.com/tamil-nadu-news/sasikala-natarajans-alleged-midnight-coup-stunned-jayalalithaas-party-1635220

It is true that she was dead long before it was actually declared. If you have been following news of the last day, you will notice that the flag was taken off at half mast but as soon as people started throwing stones and unrest was seen to be brewing, the authorities immediately declared that they were taking efforts to revive her and the flag was once again hoisted at full mast. So to avoid toptal unrest and a state of chaos, to avoid danger to life of other patients, decision to declare her demise was postponed for later at midnight when people are generally tired and a little more receptive of the sad news. It was a matter of law and order and nothing else/

Yes you are right Kalyani. But there is an ambiguity there as well. It was thanthi TV which first flashed the news, without mentioning the source. This happened late in the evening around 6 o clk i think. But if you hear the full ndtv story, it says the sasikala clan claimed even before 2PM she was dead. The full story points to something more fishy, than just the law and order situation.

Every thing is possible in Politics. Power mongers will go to any extent to grab the power. Sasikala is not an exception.

Definitely, because whatever she did in her state was tremendous and a fabulous job which I think that nobody can achieve up to that level, she was only 10 pass but she has the golden heart which I think only some of the politician has.

usha manohar wrote:

anil wrote:

Divya wrote:

i dont have enough knowledge in the matter to comment on the equation with the center... but definitely there will be changes in the structure in TN. As i see it

1. The party may be headed for split with Sasikala and OPS leading a segment each

2. Sasikala or one of her relatives will become the face of AIADMK.. but how far the party will progress of win election needs to be seen. People blinded believed Amma,, so if sasikala comes she may be able to cash in on those sentiments. She also has a lot of time in hand since the next election is due only in 2019

3. Another possibility i see is some fraction of the MLA's moving to the opposition party with Stalin .. Sasikala Pushpa in particular. In that case AIADKM could loose their majority along with the power

Evrything said and done. AIADMK can not and will not be same without JJ. She was the party and the party was her.

Sasikala is not smart like Jaya lalita. it is looking hard that she will keep party intact.

Shashikala may be smarter and much more manipulative than one expects if the reports are to be believed. According to Tehelka she probably was slow poisoning Jayalalitha and also got all the MLAs to sign on black paper a few hours before Jayalalitha breathed her last. She is also very much in possession of Jayalalithas expensive house and property..

Yes I also read about slow poisoning. She is also hold of Jaya's properties, In coming days some other claimant may be put their claim. I thinK Shashi will not keep together all MLA of AIDMK.

Surely it will change. After all it did when MGR died and Jaylaltha emerged sidelining Janaki wife of MGR. The power equation needs to be solved.

I feel that unless AIADMK consolidates it's position, the going will be tough since DMK is not far behind, having lost only with a marginal difference in the last election,  in spite of Ammas larger than life presence. 

i feel sooner or later BJP will make its inroads in TN with the support of OPS. Sasikala is likely to be sidelined. 

Even I have a feeling that it is the right time for BJP and other national parties to penetrate into TN politics which has been so far dominated by local parties. Let politics go national level in TN though the local leaders like Amma have always played a crucial role in Central politics.

TN politics have been regional centric for a very long time now. Will they change, looks difficult.

The two major parties of Tamilnadu , DMK and AIADMK between them get majority of the votes and support. So, there is not much chance for other parties to make headway here right away. But with Jayalalitha gone and  Karunanidhi aged and not very active, there may be changes much sooner than expected more so because there are no  leaders of their stature !

usha manohar wrote:

The two major parties of Tamilnadu , DMK and AIADMK between them get majority of the votes and support. So, there is not much chance for other parties to make headway here right away. But with Jayalalitha gone and  Karunanidhi aged and not very active, there may be changes much sooner than expected more so because there are no  leaders of their stature !

I too think so. But right now, there is a talk making rounds in Tamil Nadu about Sasikala's chances of emerging as power centre. O. Pannerselvam along with four of his Cabinet colleagues to Jayalalithaa's residence to meet V.K Sasikala indicates that the one-time confidante is set to be a rallying point. Additionally Sasikalawho does not  hold any senior post, except being a member of the Party executive committee. This exercise left some MLAs unhappy from the Gounder community.How this would impact particularly some in the Gounder community the election of the AIADMK General secretary and the smooth functioning of the government remains to be seen

Divya wrote:

i feel sooner or later BJP will make its inroads in TN with the support of OPS. Sasikala is likely to be sidelined. 

BJP needs support of AIIDMK MP is center so I think at present it is very hard to support OPS in TN.

It seems Sasikala will replace Jaylalitha and OPS will coninue in his submissive role. Nothing changed yet changes.

New juicy family dramas entering as Jaya's niece intervenes with her points.

There is a lot of mystery surrounding Jayalalitha esp regd her own family and that if Shashikala 

The crown is up for grabs and all will fight for it.

In the mean time the death toll has risen to 470 which AIADMK claims as after shock of Jayalalithas death but according to others , ever since the govt announced compensation of 3 lakhs for the family members , everybody who died after Jaya's death are claiming it is because of misery and grief over her death !!!!

usha manohar wrote:

In the mean time the death toll has risen to 470 which AIADMK claims as after shock of Jayalalithas death but according to others , ever since the govt announced compensation of 3 lakhs for the family members , everybody who died after Jaya's death are claiming it is because of misery and grief over her death !!!!

 Anyhow, swift changes in Tamil Nadu are taking place.CM Pannerselvam backed Chinnamma Sasikala for the post of  General Secretary, following the death of Jayalilithaa. Another senior leader, M. Thambidurai, also batted for her to take over the reins.